The Economic Survey shows that US tariffs have had the biggest impact on disrupting global trade.

The Economic Survey, released on Thursday, has emphasized the need for India to focus on building strong national capabilities and economic sovereignty. This is crucial given the current global scenario, which is witnessing a decrease in space for rules-based trading, a rise in anti-immigrant sentiment, an increase in the weaponization of energy sources, and a growing use of export controls in critical sectors. The survey noted that the global economy has been facing multiple upheavals, with the most disruptive one being the imposition of tariffs by the US on its trade partners. In a world where economic relationships are becoming increasingly strategic and contested, the ability to learn has become a key element of statecraft. It is essential for India to develop enduring national capabilities to deal with the complex geopolitical situation. The survey comes at a time when there are growing concerns over the policies of the Trump administration, particularly in the areas of trade, tariffs, and immigration. There is also apprehension regarding China's export control measures for critical minerals and the discomfort in the Western world about India's energy ties with Russia. The Economic Survey 2025-26, presented in Parliament, highlights the challenges posed by the current geopolitical and economic turbulence. It states that strategic competition is fueling trade wars, as nations compete for access to critical minerals and technological resources, resulting in a situation that resembles a new colonial scramble. The recent experience has shown that economic interdependence, which was once considered a source of mutual stability, is now seen as a vulnerability. The resurgence of ultra-nationalism based on claims of cultural superiority and an anti-immigrant stance is narrowing the scope for multilateral cooperation and rule-based trading. This, in turn, is leading to a focus on inward-looking priorities. The survey also raises concerns about the growing skepticism towards free trade and multilateral institutions, which are believed to have contributed to large and concentrated global trade imbalances. It also highlights the issue of China using its financial power to construct infrastructure in other countries through its Belt and Road Initiative, with the aim of enhancing its trade and economic dominance. In this context, the survey acknowledges that India's economic reforms and performance in the last decade have made the country resilient and capable of withstanding and adapting to external economic pressures and statecraft without significant disruptions. However, there is a need to go a step further and deliberately cultivate strategic indispensability. The Economic Survey also expresses concerns about the US's policy on tariffs. It states that since the last version of the survey was published, the global economy has faced multiple upheavals, with the most significant being the imposition of tariffs by the US on its trade partners. In today's fragmented global economy, the ability to learn without dependence has become a critical strategic skill, the survey notes. It states that Swadeshi (self-reliance) is inevitable and necessary in such a scenario. The strategic context has changed, and this has altered the calculus of openness. Export controls, technology denial regimes, carbon border mechanisms, and industrial policies in the East and West indicate the end of naive globalization. In this environment, access to inputs, technologies, and markets cannot be taken for granted. Swadeshi becomes a means to ensure continuity of production in the face of external shocks. The solution lies in developing enduring national capabilities that reinforce economic sovereignty. The survey notes that the question is not whether the state should encourage Swadeshi, but how it can do so without compromising efficiency, innovation, or global integration.