September 12th 2024.
Antony Blinken, Volodymyr Zelensky, and David Lammy had a meeting in Kyiv this week. The main topic of discussion was the use of Western-supplied long-range missiles by Ukraine against Russia. This matter has been gaining attention lately, with Ukraine continuously asking for permission to use these weapons to aid in their fight against Russia. However, the US and UK have been hesitant, fearing that it may lead to an escalation of the conflict.
During their visit to Ukraine, David Lammy and Antony Blinken were once again urged to lift the restrictions on the use of these missiles against Russia. Andrii Sybiha, Ukraine's foreign minister, believes that this decision would bring peace closer. However, concerns about potential retaliation from Russia have hindered any decision-making from the Western countries.
Although President Joe Biden has allowed Ukraine to use US-provided missiles for self-defense, there are limitations in terms of distance to avoid further provoking Russia. According to Keir Giles, a Russia expert from think tank Chatham House, Russia's typical response to Western-supplied missiles in Ukraine is to threaten a retaliation. And when they do retaliate, it is often against innocent civilians, as seen in July when a children's hospital and other civilian areas were targeted with missiles after Ukraine's border incursion into Russia.
There are also concerns that Russia's threats of retaliation may involve the use of nuclear weapons, as Kremlin officials have been known to make such statements. However, Giles believes that this is just a scare tactic and that the use of Western missiles by Ukraine would not be the final straw to trigger a nuclear response from the Kremlin.
If Russia does retaliate with larger attacks, it would be another consequence of Ukraine defending its sovereignty against Russian aggression. Giles explains that this is an inevitable consequence of being a neighbor of Russia and that the only difference is whether the cost is incurred through resisting or giving in to Russian colonization.
Furthermore, Russia's threats of retaliation have been successful in constraining the United States from providing more weapons to Ukraine. Giles believes that this is a distraction from the fact that the US and other coalition partners, like the UK and France, should respond to the delivery of Iranian ballistic missiles to Russia. This news about Iranian missiles being supplied to Russia is evidence that the Western countries have not effectively deterred them.
In the past week, both the US and UK have accused Iran of supplying short-range ballistic missiles to Russia for use in the Ukrainian conflict. They have also expressed their intention to punish those involved. Many believe that this news may embolden Zelensky to put more pressure on the US and other allies to allow Ukraine to use Western missiles to strike deep inside Russia.
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