October 28th 2024.
Renowned economist Christophe Barraud, known as the most accurate forecaster in the world, has shared his prediction for the 2024 presidential election. With Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump in a tight race with only eight days left until Election Day, Barraud, who serves as the chief economist and strategist at Market Securities Monaco, has weighed in on the potential outcome.
Using various metrics such as betting markets, polls, and financial markets, Barraud has determined that the most likely outcome is a victory for Trump and a clean sweep for the Republican party. He shared his analysis on X on Monday morning, accompanied by screengrabs from the election betting platform Polymarket and regulated exchange and prediction market Kalshi.
Barraud, who has been named the top forecaster of the US economy by Bloomberg for 11 out of the last 12 years, believes that Trump will secure the presidency and that the Republicans have a strong chance of taking the Senate. However, he sees the House as a potential toss-up.
His forecasts are based on collecting economic, financial, and satellite data and using various models to explore projections and risks. For the US election, Barraud is closely monitoring several poll-betting markets with the most users.
According to Business Insider, Barraud's success as a forecaster lies in his data-driven approach rather than personal opinions or high-level perspectives. When asked about the reasoning behind his predictions, he credits his model's output.
Barraud is not the only expert predicting a Trump victory. Nate Silver, top polling guru and founder of FiveThirtyEight, also believes that Trump will come out on top. In a guest essay for The New York Times, Silver wrote, "My gut says Donald Trump." He added that while his prediction model currently shows a 50-50 chance for both Harris and Trump, it could easily swing in either direction.
On the other hand, historian Allan Lichtman, dubbed the "Nostradamus" of US presidential elections for accurately predicting nine out of the last ten, has chosen Harris as his pick. However, unlike Barraud and Silver, Lichtman's forecast is based on his 13 keys to the White House, which rely on true-false answers rather than polls and pundits.
In conclusion, Barraud's prediction for a Trump victory and Republican sweep in the 2024 election is based on his thorough analysis of various metrics. While other experts have different forecasts, the only way to know for sure is to wait and see who will come out on top on Election Day.
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