Burnham returns to Parliament - what's next?

It was an exhilarating moment at the count room when Greater Manchester mayor and Labour candidate Andy Burnham walked in with a wide grin on his face. The biggest risk in modern UK politics had paid off, and Burnham emerged victorious in Makerfield, securing a seat in Parliament. It was a result that not many could have foreseen, especially considering the recent success of Reform in the local elections.

Just a month ago, when Josh Simons announced his resignation as the constituency MP to make way for Burnham, there were doubts about the outcome of this by-election. After all, it had only been a week since Reform's triumph in the local elections. The Labour party must have had nightmares about the possibility of another defeat in this crucial by-election.

Losing to Reform would have been a disastrous blow for Labour, as it would have indicated that there was no way back for the party. Their reputation was already in shambles, and losing to the most popular politician in the country, who was openly against their unpopular leader, would have been a devastating blow. However, Burnham's victory was decisive, with a margin of over 9,000 votes ahead of Reform's candidate Robert Kenyon.

There were speculations in the past week about Burnham not being able to surpass the combined votes of Reform and Rupert Lowe's far-right party Restore. But in the end, he not only beat them but also received thousands more votes than all the other candidates combined. It was a clear indication that everything is constantly changing in politics.

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Burnham's victory has given hope to the Labour party that there is a way back from their recent struggles. It also raises the question of whether a Reform government led by Nigel Farage is not as inevitable as previously thought. The by-election, which was organized solely for Burnham to secure a seat, has served its purpose.

The monumental sigh of relief that echoed in the counting hall at Wigan's The Edge venue and the party headquarters on Rushworth Street in London is palpable. It's safe to say that even Sir Keir Starmer's supporters must have breathed a sigh of relief. But as mentioned earlier, this is just one small narrative thread in the dramatic week that followed the local elections last month.

What happens next is what everyone is waiting to see. Burnham and his team have been planning their next moves since securing this by-election. He is expected to have a meeting with Starmer this weekend, where he will likely suggest that the Prime Minister set a timetable for his departure.

The big question is, how will Starmer respond? He has been vocal about fighting any leadership contest, but it is also expected of him to say that. What if he agrees to a handover, and Burnham loses?

The next week is going to be crucial for the Labour party. Meanwhile, the battle to replace Burnham as the Mayor of Greater Manchester is already underway. This could be a major test for the Labour party, assuming that Burnham will be the next leader.

Will the people of Manchester and the surrounding areas still have faith in the party without Burnham as its candidate? There have been talks about bringing in a big name like Gary Neville to attract attention, but the former Manchester United star has reportedly declined the offer. The mayoralty is a significant prize for Reform, and they will do everything in their power to dampen Labour's enthusiasm after this morning's victory.

However, the Green Party was the real winner in Manchester's local elections last month, gaining 18 seats while Labour lost 24. This could potentially lead to a three-horse race for the position. Interestingly, this election will be held under a different voting system than the one used in 2024 to elect Burnham.

The supplementary vote system takes into account ranked preferences, making it harder for Reform to win. All in all, today's result may just be the beginning of an eventful summer in politics. So, if you thought this was the peak of political drama, you haven't seen anything yet.

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