June 8th 2024.
Tim Scott, the only Black Republican in the Senate and a close ally of Donald Trump, spoke to reporters on June 4th about his belief that Trump could gain support from Black male voters. He also mentioned his willingness to lead a campaign targeting Black voters in key states. On June 6th, the Great Opportunity PAC, which is aligned with Scott, announced a $14.3 million effort to encourage voting for Trump and other Republican candidates.
According to a report from CBS News, there has been speculation that Scott may be considered for the vice presidential nomination from Trump. In an interview with reporters, Scott stated, "There's a growing possibility that African-American men may shift their political allegiance. If some Black voters stay home and others switch to the Right, the Democrats will have a difficult time filling that void."
While a March poll from CBS News showed a slight increase in Black support for Trump to 23%, a more recent poll from Pew Research revealed that this number may be too high. Despite some gains among certain groups of Black voters, the Pew poll showed that only 20% of Black registered voters would currently vote for Trump. Additionally, the majority of Black voters (72%) see Trump as a terrible president and believe he attempted to interfere with the 2020 election (65%).
Some critics, such as journalist Ameshia Cross and activist Jason Alston, have expressed doubt about Scott's claims of a significant shift in Black support for Trump. They point to a Brookings report which states that the polling data suggesting a movement towards Trump among Black voters is based on limited sample sizes and is not as recent as the Pew poll. The report also cites Howard University professor Marcus J. Board, who argues that historically, Black support for Republicans has been much lower than the 23% figure raised by Scott.
In fact, a survey from the New York Times showed that after Trump's conviction in the Stormy Daniels hush money case, Black voters who initially supported Trump switched their allegiance to Biden. This contradicts the narrative that Black voters are increasingly turning to Trump.
The Center for Politics also challenges the idea of a surge in Black Republican voters, citing data from the American National Election Studies. According to their analysis, there is no evidence of a significant increase in support for Republican presidential candidates among Black voters in recent elections. The most recent data from the American National Election Study shows that Trump only received 7% of the Black vote in the 2020 election, which is almost identical to the 6% he received in 2016. This further undermines the notion that there is a significant shift towards Trump among Black voters.
These findings have led to criticism of Scott's statements and his repeated misrepresentations of the truth, as seen in his recent appearance on CNN. It seems that while Scott may believe in the potential for Black voters to support Trump, the evidence does not support his claims of a major shift in allegiance.
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