October 29th 2024.
What a whirlwind of a month it has been for the Colorado Avalanche, am I right? From injuries to key players to a rough start to the season, it's safe to say that the Avs have had their fair share of challenges to overcome. And just when they thought things couldn't get any worse, they were hit with even more injuries.
At the start of the 2024-25 season, the Avs were already aware that they would be without three key forwards until at least November. Little did they know, the injury situation would only get worse. All three of the missing forwards on opening night had previously played as the first-line left wing, and then Jonathan Drouin got injured in Las Vegas and hasn't played since. To make matters worse, Ross Colton, who had been filling in for Drouin, also suffered an injury after a strong start to the season. And let's not forget about their No. 2 defenseman, Devon Toews, who missed four of the first 10 games as well. With an 0-4 start, a five-game winning streak, and some of the top scorers in the NHL, along with some of the worst goaltending, it's safe to say that this has been quite a rollercoaster of a start to the season.
Despite all the challenges, the Avs have had some strong performances, and there are some key observations to be made from the first 10 games. First of all, it's important to remember that at this point, most of the numbers are still more noise than signal. Even with a couple of poor performances, the Avs' statistical profile is still strong, ranking sixth in expected goals for percentage and fourth in scoring chances for percentage at 5-on-5. And with the addition of Drouin, Artturi Lehkonen, and Valeri Nichushkin, the Avs' 5-on-5 play should only improve. In fact, their defensive game has been stronger than their offensive game, ranking second in shots on goal allowed per 60 minutes and sixth in expected goals against per 60. With the return of those three key forwards, the Avs' defensive and offensive game will surely be boosted.
On top of injuries and goaltending struggles, the Avs have also faced some poor shooting luck. Ranking 20th in shooting percentage at 5-on-5 and 28th in high-danger shooting percentage, it's clear that they could use some high-percentage shots from players like Lehkonen and Nichushkin. And despite Colton's impressive eight goals so far this season, he also leads the NHL with three shots off the crossbar. Cale Makar has also hit the iron three times. However, the Avs have shot well on the power play, and some positive regression could be on the horizon.
With injuries and poor shooting luck, the Avs have had to rely on some unexpected players to step up. One of those players is Casey Mittelstadt, who leads the Avs' forwards in 5-on-5 points despite not having his usual linemates due to injuries. This trade is looking like a home run for the Avs, and if Mittelstadt can continue to improve, it could make them the best offensive team in the NHL by the end of the season. And let's not forget about the undrafted success stories, such as Joel Kiviranta and Ivan Ivan. Kiviranta has already scored four goals this season, one more than he had all of last year, while Ivan has proven to be a reliable depth player for the Avs.
And while the Avs have had to deal with injuries and unexpected players stepping up, there are some key players who have been playing at the same level as they did last year. Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar, and Mikko Rantanen are all playing similar minutes as they did last season, showing the confidence that coach Jared Bednar has in them. This could pay off in the long run, as they won't be overworked during the regular season, giving them an advantage in the playoffs.
In conclusion, while the first 10 games have been a rollercoaster for the Avs, there are many positive takeaways to be had. With the return of key players from injuries and some positive regression in their shooting luck, the Avs have the potential to make a run for the division and conference titles. And let's not forget about the key players who have been playing at a high level, giving the Avs an advantage for the long haul. Stay tuned for more insights in the next Avs Journal, and don't forget to sign up for the Avalanche Insider for all the latest NHL analysis.
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