December 20th 2024.
Who will be left behind in the next console race? A well-known research firm predicts that only two major consoles will survive, and Nintendo has already secured its spot as a winner. But while it may seem like the PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X/S generation has just begun, Sony and Microsoft are already looking ahead to the next race.
Nintendo is expected to launch the successor to the Switch next year, but both Sony and Microsoft have hinted at their plans for the next generation of consoles. There are rumors that the next Xbox may arrive as early as 2026, while details on what exactly Sony and Microsoft can offer players remain a mystery. Both companies are struggling to attract consumers to the current generation, now that the competition in graphics has reached its peak.
According to DFC Intelligence, the next console race will have a major impact on the future of the gaming industry. It poses a significant risk for one of the three major console manufacturers, as Nintendo is predicted to be the clear winner due to its early launch and lack of competition. This leaves either Sony or Microsoft to potentially struggle in third place.
The report states that there is only room for two major consoles, with one of the two companies likely to struggle and fall into a distant third place, depending on early momentum. Based on the current player base for the PlayStation 5, Sony has an advantage, but DFC Intelligence notes that Microsoft will be the largest gaming publisher heading into the next generation.
While Sony has a loyal fan base and strong IP, Microsoft has made major acquisitions that have made it the world's largest software publisher. The report suggests that Microsoft may focus on software and distribution models rather than hardware. However, it is unclear how the recent acquisition of Activision Blizzard will affect Microsoft's console sales, especially since most of the games will also be available on PlayStation.
DFC Intelligence is implying that Xbox is most at risk, even with its strong software publishing business. Although Microsoft is working on another Xbox console, including a handheld, the brand has also been making moves towards becoming a platform-agnostic publisher. Its Game Pass subscription service is available on PCs, phones, and Amazon TV devices.
While Microsoft can afford to take losses, there is little reason for them to continue in the hardware space if they have another failure like the Xbox Series X/S. Reports suggest that the console has been outsold 3-1 by Sony's PlayStation 5, although Microsoft has not released official sales figures.
What could be the key to success for Xbox? Could a handheld console be the answer? In addition to these predictions, DFC Intelligence estimates that the games industry will experience record growth in 2025, thanks to new Nintendo hardware and the highly anticipated GTA 6. The firm also predicts that the number of video game players worldwide will exceed 4 billion by 2027, nearly half of the global population, although the majority will be playing free mobile and web-based games.
According to DFC Intelligence founder and CEO David Cole, the video game industry has grown more than 20 times in the past three decades and is expected to continue growing at a healthy rate through the end of the decade. However, there are still questions about who will lose the next-gen console war and who will win the game software distribution battle. As larger publishers focus on live services and evergreen franchises, there will be plenty of opportunities for smaller studios.
In other news, Sony has recently launched the PS5 Pro, and readers can stay updated on the latest gaming news by subscribing to our newsletter, following us on Twitter, and leaving a comment below. We also welcome submissions for Inbox letters and Reader's Features through our Submit Stuff page.
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