June 27th 2023.
Vladimir Putin is facing a difficult situation as he tries to quell the insurrection from the Wagner paramilitary group. Alec Bertina, an all-source analyst at the Grey Dynamics private intelligence firm, recently told The Agency that Putin cannot simply 'kill his way out' of the power struggle. Doing so would cause more problems than it would solve.
The mutiny has been a major challenge for Putin, as the Wagner group, led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, captured the city of Rostov-on-Don, a key Russian military center. The group then advanced to within 125 miles of Moscow, and Prigozhin was exiled to Belarus under a deal brokered by President Aleksandr Lukashenko.
Bertina noted that, though assassinations and mysterious deaths of those who have fallen out of favour with the Kremlin have become routine, this option would not be beneficial in this case. The Wagner forces were reportedly well-prepared for the mission and liquidating the leaders would only result in more effort and resources being used to reconstitute the units.
In a pre-recorded television address, Putin said that those involved in the 'criminal activity' would be brought to justice and invited the mercenaries to sign over to the Russian Ministry of Defence. However, Bertina believes the Wagner operators are likely to be upset with Prigozhin for ending the mission and may not be willing to abandon him.
The situation is further complicated by the existing discontent among the Russian elites, which Putin's handling of the situation is likely to exacerbate. Prigozhin had previously attacked the Russian defence minister and army chief for failing to provide his mercenaries with enough ammunition during the fight for the Ukrainian town of Bakhmut, and accused the Ministry of Defence of launching a missile attack on one of his camps.
To prevent further issues, Wagner and other Russian private military companies have until July 1 to sign a contract bringing the group under the auspices of the Russian Ministry of Defence. It remains to be seen what will happen next, and how Putin will handle the situation.
Vladimir Putin is facing a difficult power struggle with the Wagner paramilitary group, after its leader Yevgeny Prigozhin executed a mutiny. Prigozhin has since been exiled to Belarus and is now threatening retribution against the Wagner leaders.
Alec Bertina, an all-source analyst at the Grey Dynamics private intelligence firm, said that Putin knows he can't simply ‘kill his way out’ of the situation. Assassinations and mysterious deaths are commonplace among high-profile Russians who fall out of favour with the Kremlin, but this option would cause more problems than it would solve.
The Wagner group captured the city of Rostov-on-Don, a key Russian military centre, before advancing within 125 miles of Moscow. However, Putin has said that those involved in the ‘criminal activity’ will be brought to justice. He is now inviting the mercenaries to sign over to the Russian Ministry of Defence, but it remains to be seen if they will abandon Prigozhin, who is reportedly staying at a hotel in Minsk.
Bertina said that many of the Wagner operators will be upset at Prigozhin for ending the rebellion. He added that there is a balance between ensuring loyalty and not taking cut-throat measures that will backfire and make Russia look worse.
Prigozhin had repeatedly launched blistering video attacks on Russian defence minister Sergei Shoigu and army chief Valery Gerasimov for failing to provide his mercenaries with enough ammunition. On Friday, he accused the Russian Ministry of Defence of launching a missile attack on one of his camps.
Putin has now given Wagner and all Russian private military companies until July 1 to sign a contract bringing them under the auspices of the Russian Ministry of Defence. It remains to be seen how this situation will play out, but it is clear that Putin is facing a difficult challenge with the Wagner group.
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