August 26th 2023.
Yevgeny Prigozhin, widely thought to have been killed in a hit ordered by Russian president Vladimir Putin, will go down in history as a privateer who represented a return of medieval-style tactics to nation state conflicts. Anthony King, Professor of War Studies at the University of Warwick, described the Wagner Group leader as a ‘dreadful individual’ who represented a throwback to an earlier age of hired armies.
Prof King warned that the conflict in Ukraine is likely to be a protracted affair at ‘incalculable’ cost to Russia and with any victory for Kyiv far on the horizon. He spoke after Prigozhin was reported to be among 10 people who died in a plane crash north of Moscow on Wednesday night, exactly two months after he abandoned an armed advance on the city.
The Chair of War Studies said the Kremlin had been involved in the ‘medievalisation’ of inter-state warfare by deploying the private military contractor in Vladimir Putin’s ‘disastrous’ full-scale invasion of Ukraine and other conflict zones. According to Prof King, Prigozhin is an important figure in marking a significant shift away from 20th Century warfare as he represents the return of the privateer warlord as a key component.
The last known image of Prigozhin showed him standing alone with an assault rifle in a desert environment, possibly in Africa. Putin is now widely suspected of having ordered the elimination of his former chef, whose private jet crashed near the city of Tver. Wagner-affiliated Telegram channels suggested the aircraft, which had been flying at 28,000ft, had been shot down, while former British intelligence officer Christopher Steele raised the suggestion that a bomb had been smuggled onboard hidden in a crate of wine.
Prof King believes all the evidence points towards this plane crash being an act of assassination by Putin. He said Prigozhin seriously undermined Putin’s power and status with his act of mutiny back in June and suggested that this sends out the message that Putin’s opponents will be eliminated.
On the battlefield, the demise of Prigozhin and Wagner co-founder Dmitry Utkin, who was also on board, is unlikely to change the grinding nature of the war. Prof King believes the bloody conflict is likely to continue until at least 2025 as it has been a totally disastrous war for Putin. He said any success for Ukraine is totally dependent on Western support, such as providing F-16s, artillery systems and training their forces, but he is sceptical that the West can provide enough support to shorten the war and make this Ukrainian counter-offensive completely successful.
Major General Volodymyr Havrylov, Ukraine’s deputy defence minister, told BBC Newsnight this week that his homeland was weighing the lives of its troops and ‘adjusting’ to battlefield conditions in the counter-offensive. He said their approach is simple and the value of life is number one in their country and culture, which is why they have to adjust and adapt their tactics and their equipment.
Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov yesterday described allegations that the Kremlin ordered Prigozhin’s death as an ‘absolute lie’. He told reporters that there had been ‘lots of speculation’ about the crash and dismissed ‘Western talk’ that Putin was to blame. The Russian president has said an investigation into the incident will be carried out ‘in full and taken right to the end’.
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