October 30th 2024.
Renowned historian and respected American University professor, Allan Lichtman, made waves in early September with his prediction that Vice President Kamala Harris would emerge victorious in the upcoming election. Known as the "Nostradamus of US elections," Lichtman has successfully predicted nine out of the last ten presidential elections, making his insights highly sought after.
As Election Day draws closer, Lichtman has once again shared his forecast, this time via YouTube. "The keys have not changed," he confidently stated, reaffirming his previous prediction in favor of Harris. He explained that his prediction is not based on popular polls or media speculation, but rather on 13 key factors that determine the success of the political party in power. These keys, which he developed with a Russian academic in 1981, include elements such as the state of the economy, social unrest, and even foreign policy.
Lichtman's prediction for Harris remains unchanged despite the highly anticipated debate between her and incumbent President Donald Trump on September 10. He made his prediction prior to the debate in order to emphasize that it is the candidate's governing abilities, not their campaigning tactics, that ultimately determine the outcome of an election.
Addressing the question on many people's minds, Lichtman clarified that his prediction has not changed in the face of recent events. He emphasized that "the biggest myth in American politics is the October surprise," and that he stands by his original forecast.
Interestingly, Lichtman's prediction goes against the latest forecasts of other experts, including renowned polling guru Nate Silver and leading economist Christophe Barraud. While Silver has admitted to a gut feeling that Trump may win, he also acknowledges that with such a close race, a 50-50 chance is the most responsible forecast. Barraud, on the other hand, believes that a Trump victory is the most probable outcome, with Republicans also taking control of the Senate and House.
Despite the differing opinions and heightened election anxiety across the country, Lichtman remains confident in his prediction. As a veteran in the field, he has experienced election anxiety every four years, but this year feels different. "I have a flock of crows in my stomach," he shared, highlighting the gravity of the situation and the potential impact of this election on the future of democracy in America.
In fact, Lichtman himself took a stand by canceling his subscription to The Washington Post, along with 250,000 others, after the newspaper allegedly refused to endorse a candidate. The editorial board had reportedly drafted an endorsement for Harris, but owner Jeff Bezos, the billionaire founder of Amazon, reportedly intervened.
As the tension and anticipation continue to build, public figures are taking sides and voicing their opinions. On Wednesday, former Republican California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger endorsed Harris, while American astronaut Buzz Aldrin made a pitch for Trump. It is clear that the outcome of this election is of utmost importance to citizens across the country, and Lichtman's unchanging prediction only adds to the intensity of the situation.
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