June 4th 2024.
New Delhi: The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is facing a tough time after the recent Lok Sabha elections. The party, which has been struggling since the arrest of its leader and Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal, is now facing its biggest challenge in the 12 years since its inception.
The party contested 22 seats in Punjab, Delhi, Gujarat, Assam, and Haryana. However, it only managed to win three seats in Punjab. The party was hopeful about its performance in Delhi, where it was formed in 2012, but unfortunately, it failed to win any of the four seats it contested. Despite this, the party did manage to reduce the margin of defeat compared to the 2019 elections.
The results have raised doubts about the effectiveness of the AAP's alliance with the Congress in Delhi, Gujarat, and Haryana. It seems that the alliance did not provide the expected boost to Kejriwal's party. The three seats won by the AAP in Punjab - Gurmeet Singh Meet Hayer from Sangrur, Raj Kumar Chabbewal from Hoshiarpur, and Malvinder Singh Kang from Anandpur Sahib - were an improvement from the 2019 elections, where they only won one seat in Sangrur. However, this was not the result the party was hoping for. Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann had confidently stated that they would win all 13 seats in Punjab, a state where the party had received overwhelming support in the 2022 assembly polls.
In Gujarat, the AAP's chances were hindered by the absence of their star campaigner and crowd-puller, Arvind Kejriwal, who was in jail at the time. In Kurukshetra, the AAP candidate and state president Sushil Gupta lost to the BJP's Naveen Jindal. This defeat also means that the AAP will enter the state elections later this year with little momentum on their side.
The arrest of its leader, Arvind Kejriwal, on March 21 - just a week after the announcement of the Lok Sabha poll schedule - severely hampered the party's campaign. The party had hoped to gain sympathy votes by highlighting Kejriwal's imprisonment and using the slogan 'Jail ka jawab vote se' (Answer jail with your vote). However, this strategy did not sway the voters. They were not convinced that Kejriwal was a victim of the BJP's alleged 'dictatorship'. The AAP now faces the challenge of keeping the party together, especially in the absence of its senior leaders - former Deputy CM Manish Sisodia and former health minister Satyendar Jain - who are also in jail on different charges. The party is also facing controversies related to the Swati Maliwal case. It remains to be seen who will lead the party out of this politically challenging phase.
With Kejriwal's reputation as a leader being tarnished, questions are being raised about his ability to govern Delhi from jail and for how long he can continue to do so. Sunita Kejriwal, who was previously described by the CM as a messenger between him, the party leaders, and the people of Delhi, may now have to take on a more active political role.
The AAP's unimpressive performance in Punjab has weakened the position of Bhagwant Mann, and it comes as a setback for the party ahead of the assembly polls in Delhi early next year. The party had achieved landslide victories in Delhi in 2015 and 2020. AAP leaders believe that Kejriwal's absence from active campaigning for 50 days due to his arrest significantly impacted the party's prospects. "It was a major factor as the Delhi chief minister could only campaign for three weeks after the Supreme Court granted him bail. He is the most prominent face of the party, and we sorely missed him during campaigning," said a party leader, requesting anonymity.
Despite these challenges, the party is putting on a brave face. "We contested the polls in adverse circumstances... In Delhi, we put up a strong fight against the BJP, and the margins of defeat are narrow this time," said AAP Delhi state convener Gopal Rai. The AAP and Congress had formed an alliance under the INDIA bloc to prevent the split of votes against the BJP. However, their seat-sharing experiment could only reduce the margin of defeat. In 2019, the BJP had won all seven seats in Delhi with significant margins. The votes polled by the BJP were higher than the combined votes of the AAP and Congress candidates.
The loss of both the AAP and Congress candidates in Delhi also raises questions about the effectiveness of their alliance. Some doubts were already present regarding the synergy between their grassroots workers and their campaign. "It was expected that Congress and AAP voters in different constituencies would vote for each other. However, the margin of votes with which the BJP won indicates that it did not fully translate on the ground," claimed a senior Delhi Congress leader.
After being released from Tihar on May 10, Kejriwal campaigned for Congress candidates, holding roadshows for their nominees in the North West, Chandni Chowk, and North East seats. On the other hand, no top Congress leader, including Rahul Gandhi, campaigned for AAP candidates. Gandhi did hold election meetings for Congress candidates in Delhi, but none of them campaigned for AAP candidates. Congress leader Sachin Pilot did address a poll meeting in support of AAP candidate Sahi Ram in South Delhi, and AAP Delhi convener Gopal Rai was present during the nomination of Congress candidates.
During their election campaign, the BJP focused on attacking Kejriwal, trying to damage his image by highlighting corruption allegations such as the 'liquor scam' and 'irregularities' in the renovation of his official residence into a 'Sheesh Mahal' (Palace of Mirrors). They neglected important issues like water supply and air pollution. The AAP's performance in Punjab has also dashed their hopes of playing a significant role in case the INDIA bloc forms the next government at the Centre.
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