July 1st 2024.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) revealed on Monday that India experienced below-average rainfall in the month of June, with a deficit of 11%. This is the highest recorded deficit in the past five years. IMD data shows that the country received 147.2 mm of rainfall, which is lower than the average of 165.3 mm for the month. In fact, this is the seventh lowest rainfall recorded since 2001.
June is a crucial month for the monsoon season in India, as it accounts for 15% of the total precipitation of 87 cm. The monsoon season lasts for four months and is a vital source of water for the country. However, this year, the monsoon lost its momentum after an early onset over Kerala and the northeastern region on May 30. It then progressed normally up to Maharashtra but slowed down, causing a delay in rains for states like West Bengal, Odisha, Jharkhand, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Uttar Pradesh. This delay, coupled with a scorching heat wave in northwest India, has worsened the situation.
Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, the chief of IMD, stated that the country experienced below-normal rainfall for 16 days in a row, from June 11 to June 27. This has resulted in the overall deficit in precipitation. Northwest India recorded a 33% rainfall deficit, central India had a 14% deficit, and east and northeast India had a 13% deficit. The only region that received surplus rains was South India.
According to the Met office, 12% of the sub-divisional area of the country experienced excess to large excess rainfall, while 38% received normal rainfall, and 50% experienced deficient to large deficient rainfall. Interestingly, IMD data shows that in the past 25 years, whenever there has been below-normal rainfall in June, the month of July has seen normal or above-normal rainfall. Similarly, in 17 out of 25 years, the seasonal rainfall has been normal or above-normal despite a below-normal June.
IMD had initially predicted above-normal rainfall for the monsoon season in India, with cumulative precipitation estimated at 106% of the long-period average of 87 cm. However, now they are expecting below-normal monsoon rainfall in northeast India, normal rainfall in the northwest, and above-normal rainfall in central and south peninsular regions of the country.
The core monsoon zone of India, which covers most of the rain-fed agricultural areas, is expected to receive above-normal rainfall this season, according to the Met office. This is significant as 52% of the net cultivated area in the country depends on the monsoon. Moreover, the monsoon is crucial for replenishing reservoirs that are vital for drinking water and power generation.
June and July are crucial months for agriculture in India, as most of the sowing for the Kharif crop takes place during this period. However, the current El Nino conditions may affect the monsoon season. Scientists have stated that La Nina, which is the antithesis of El Nino, may set in by August-September and lead to plentiful rainfall during the monsoon season. El Nino, on the other hand, is associated with weaker monsoon winds and drier conditions in India.
Overall, the below-normal rainfall in June has raised concerns about the progress of the monsoon season in India. However, there is hope that the situation may improve in the coming months.
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