November 16th 2024.
As summer approaches, many Australians are eagerly anticipating the warm weather and the chance to hit the beach. However, the latest weather forecast is bringing both good and bad news for those planning to enjoy the summer months.
The good news is that temperatures are expected to be pleasantly warm. However, the bad news is that we may need to keep our umbrellas handy, as there is a high chance of precipitation throughout the season.
So, what do we know about the upcoming summer forecast? Well, the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) has not yet released their official prediction, but they have shared some long-range modeling for the months of December to February.
According to the latest long-range forecast, which was published on November 14th, it seems that Australia is in for a hot summer. In fact, the majority of the country, including the east coast, south coast of Victoria, Tasmania, the west coast, and the surrounding areas of Darwin, have a greater than 70% chance of experiencing above-average temperatures.
However, the likelihood of extreme temperatures is still moderate. Most parts of Australia have less than a 50% chance of reaching temperatures that would be considered in the top 20% of recorded temperatures for this time of year.
Perth seems to be the exception, with a better than 50% chance of experiencing unusually warm temperatures, along with many areas along the rest of the coast and parts of northern Tasmania.
Unfortunately, it doesn't look like there will be much relief from the heat at night either. The majority of the country, including major cities like Sydney, Brisbane, and Canberra, have a better than 60% chance of recording historically high minimum temperatures throughout the season.
But what about rainfall? If the forecasts are accurate, it seems that we can expect a wet summer, particularly on the east coast. The BoM's long-range forecast states that there is a high chance of above-average rainfall for much of eastern Australia, including parts of Queensland, New South Wales, central Victoria, and eastern Tasmania. They also warn that there could be unusually high rainfall in certain areas, such as Queensland's interior and the Cape York Peninsula.
The only areas that may not see above-average rainfall are small, remote parts of Western Australia, South Australia, and the Northern Territory.
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