November 7th 2024.
As the country prepares for the return of Donald Trump to the White House, four years after his controversial and defiant departure, Republicans in the Bay Area are feeling energized and rejuvenated. Not only did their party secure the presidential victory, but they also saw a rightward shift in key down-ballot races in California, a traditionally blue state.
At the Back Forty Texas BBQ Saloon in Pleasant Hill, Contra Costa County Republicans gathered on Tuesday night, and by 9 p.m., they were already claiming victory. Among them was Gloria Pope, a 69-year-old resident of Pacheco, who expressed her joy by saying, "I'm verklempt. We've been through so much in the past four years. This is our chance to climb out of the hole and return to being human again."
Andrew Armen, a 26-year-old from Orinda, arrived at the watch party fresh off a plane from Philadelphia, where he spent the last two months canvassing for a pro-Trump political action committee. "Being up by three points in Pennsylvania is a game-changer," he exclaimed. Armen believed that his efforts were better spent in the swing state rather than in California, where the results were not as favorable for Trump in the presidential and Senate races, although the margins were smaller than expected.
According to Bill Whalen, a political analyst and fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford, although California is a predominantly blue state, it does not mean that all its residents vote for the Democratic party. There are nuances and differences in ideas, and Republicans made significant gains in these areas.
The lack of a highly contested presidential race in California may have contributed to a lower voter turnout compared to the 2020 election. Additionally, the certainty that California's 54 electoral votes would go to Kamala Harris may have created an opportunity for the state's GOP.
Dan Schnur, a professor at UC Berkeley's Institute of Governmental Studies, pointed out that Democratic voters in states like Michigan and Arizona may have been more motivated to vote, knowing that their states' outcomes would play a crucial role in the election. On the other hand, in California, where the outcome was predictable, some Democratic voters may not have felt the same motivation.
Although California may not have been won over by Trump, conservatives still had plenty to celebrate. They had successes in congressional races in swing districts, rejected progressive ballot measures, and recalled a progressive mayor and district attorney in Oakland and Alameda County, respectively.
The early results of the ballot measures showed that California was leaning towards more conservative views this year. Proposition 36, which increased penalties for theft and drug-related crimes, was supported by 70% of the voters. Proposition 33, which aimed to expand rent control, was rejected by only 38% of voters. And Proposition 5, which would have lowered the threshold for future bond measures to pass, was also rejected by the majority.
In the down-ballot races, Republicans were leading in the six competitive U.S. House districts that could impact the balance of power in Congress. However, it is still too early to declare the winners.
According to state GOP chair Jessica Millan Patterson, California voters sent a clear message to Democrats that they were fed up with their failed and radical policies, which had led the state and the nation in the wrong direction. She cited issues such as the homeless crisis, failing public schools, rising crime rates, and increasing costs.
Jack Pitney, a professor of politics at Claremont McKenna College, warned against interpreting the Republican's strong performance in down-ballot races as a sign of a revival for the party in California. He believes that it was more a result of the absence of Democratic mobilization.
If there had been a more vigorous get-out-the-vote effort in California, it may not have changed the outcome of the presidential race, but it could have had a significant impact on down-ballot races. Whalen, the political analyst, noted that Harris did not actively campaign in her home state, nor did she get involved with down-ballot candidates.
Although Harris won California by a comfortable margin, it seems that she did not perform as well against Trump as Biden did in 2020. In fact, Trump has continued to make gains in the Golden State since his first run in 2016. With 54% of the votes counted on Wednesday, Harris was leading California by a margin of 17.2 points. In comparison, Biden won by 29.2 points in 2020, and Hillary Clinton won by 30 points in 2016.
Despite losing the Senate race, the early results showed that Republican Steve Garvey had performed better against Democrat Adam Schiff than the previous Republican candidate, Mark Meuser, who lost to Sen. Alex Padilla in 2020 with only 39% of the vote.
In a downtown San Jose pub, Silicon Valley GOP chair Shane Patrick Connolly watched the results with fellow Republicans. He expressed his confidence in their Republican representatives, saying, "Our Republicans in office have a great record of being good stewards of people's money, having common sense, and not being extreme. We don't feel that the Democrats in office have done a good job of managing funds."
In Pleasant Hill, the only Republican that was on everyone's mind was Trump. April and Kevin Rose, a couple from Concord, were among the jubilant crowd celebrating Trump's projected victory in North Carolina. April attributed the strong showing to concerns about inflation and affordability, saying that she was frustrated with the rising costs of gas and groceries, which she blamed on Biden. For many, Trump's promise to restore America to a romanticized version of itself still resonates.
Vernon Pope, Gloria's husband, echoed this sentiment, saying that they wanted to ensure that their grandson would have the same America that they had. Nolan Chen, a Contra Costa County GOP member and former congressional candidate, believed that even Democrats viewed Harris as inauthentic, especially in the last few weeks of the election. He pointed out that Harris had tried to appeal to conservatives by promising to appoint a Republican to her cabinet and mentioning that she owns a gun.
Chen also acknowledged that Trump's personality may not be appealing to everyone, but he believed that many were willing to overlook it and focus on the conservative values he promised to restore in America. While Democrats were questioning the path the country would take under a second Trump presidency, for many supporters, his victory represented a sense of peace and justice after the tumultuous 2020 election.
Reporting by Harriet Blair Rowan and Sana Dadani contributed to this article.
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