September 13th 2024.
Around 252 million years ago, the planet was struck by a catastrophic event that forever changed its landscape. This event, known as the Great Dying, was a mass extinction that wiped out over 90% of all life on Earth. It was the most devastating of the five major catastrophic events in the planet's history, even more catastrophic than the one that wiped out the dinosaurs.
Scientists have been trying to understand what caused this mass extinction for years, and the most widely accepted explanation is that it was triggered by a sudden increase in carbon dioxide. This increase in carbon dioxide was caused by a massive volcanic eruption in the Siberian Traps, an area in what is now Russia. This eruption, which was about the size of Australia, resulted in higher temperatures, acid rain, and ocean acidification.
However, new research published in the journal Science suggests that there may have been another factor at play - a mega El Niño event. This climate phenomenon, similar to the El Niño events we experience today, may have played a pivotal role in the Great Dying. According to the study's coauthor, Professor Paul Wignall, this was a climate-based extinction crisis. It wasn't just the warming that caused the mass extinction, but how the climate responded to it.
The research team used a computer model to simulate the global climate during the end of the Permian Period. Their findings suggest that as global temperatures rose, the El Niño events grew in intensity and duration. This phenomenon, which affected weather patterns all over the world, caused alternating periods of flooding and scorching drought. These extreme weather conditions would have unleashed wildfires and devastated all types of species across the planet over a period of about 100,000 years.
Today, we experience El Niño events every two to seven years, and they typically last between nine and 18 months. However, during the Great Dying, these events were much more intense and could last for up to 10 years. This was because the El Niño originated in the Panthalassic Ocean, a much larger body of water than the current Pacific Ocean. This ocean could hold more heat, which in turn strengthened and sustained the El Niño effects.
While the volcanic activity in the Siberian Traps was a significant factor, it wasn't enough on its own to explain the magnitude of the mass extinction. The planet had experienced similar volcanic eruptions before, but they did not result in a mass extinction. According to Wignall, it was the combination of volcanic activity and the feedback mechanism on ocean dynamics caused by the mega El Niño events that led to the Great Dying.
The study also shed light on why extinctions began on land before they occurred in the oceans. The prolonged and intense El Niño events caused temperatures on land to rise rapidly, exceeding the thermal tolerances of many species. This resulted in their extinction before they had a chance to adapt. The co-lead author of the study, Yadong Sun, explained that only species that could migrate quickly could survive. Unfortunately, there weren't many plants or animals that could do so.
One of the main reasons the end-Permian extinction was so severe was because the mega El Niños created incredibly warm conditions in the tropics. These conditions quickly spread to higher latitudes, resulting in the loss of most vegetation. Without plants to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, the levels of this greenhouse gas skyrocketed. Wignall described a post-extinction world where there were no trees taller than knee-high, and the ecosystem was struggling to recover.
To understand past changes in temperature, scientists rely on various proxy data, such as plant and animal fossils, sediment and ice cores, tree rings, and coral. In this study, the team used data from fossils of tiny eel-like creatures called conodonts to build their climate model. These fossils, which were abundant in the ocean during the end-Permian period, provided detailed temperature data from different latitudes. According to senior research associate Alex Farnsworth, this data showed how temperatures rose as the mass extinction unfolded.
The study's findings have significant implications for our current climate crisis. Some experts believe that we are in the middle of a sixth mass extinction, and the end-Permian extinction may hold important lessons for us. While El Niño events today can cause coral bleaching and fish mortality, the ecological impact and future trajectory of these events in a warming climate are still unknown.
However, Wignall believes that the Earth today is very different from the one 252 million years ago. The supercontinent Pangea and the massive ocean may have made the planet more vulnerable to the effects of carbon dioxide expelled by supervolcanoes. He also reassures that we will likely never experience the extreme conditions of the end-Permian extinction again.
In conclusion, the Great Dying was a catastrophic event that forever changed the Earth's landscape and wiped out over 90% of all life. While volcanic activity played a significant role, the study suggests that a mega El Niño event may have been the tipping point that caused the mass extinction. This research provides a better understanding of how complex and interconnected our climate is and serves as a warning as we face our current ecological crisis.
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