October 1st 2024.
Tonight marks the return of one of the most highly anticipated events in European football - the Champions League. This week, the all-new league phase kicks off, promising even more drama for fans of the top club competition in Europe. Representing the Premier League are four teams - Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, and Manchester City - all hoping to make their way through to the knockout stages after Christmas.
But for those unfamiliar with the new format, there may be some confusion as to how it works and what it takes to reach the knockout phases. Thankfully, Opta, a leading sports data and analytics company, has run the numbers and determined exactly how many points teams like Real Madrid will need to qualify for the round-of-16, and if underdogs like Celtic have a chance at reaching the play-offs.
So, what exactly is this new Champions League format and how does it work? This season, the traditional 32-team group stage has been replaced by a league phase featuring 36 clubs, which has been dubbed the "Swiss model." Instead of facing three teams twice, each team has been drawn against eight different opponents - two from each of the four seeding pots. This means that every team will play four games at home and four away, with the results determining their position in one large league table. The top eight finishers will secure direct qualification to the round-of-16.
But what about the teams that don't make it into the top eight? They will enter into a knockout playoff contest, where a victory will secure their spot in the round of 16. However, teams that finish in positions 25 to 36 will unfortunately be eliminated from the competition. In the knockout phase, all games will be contested home and away, with the final being a single leg match.
Now, the burning question - how many points are needed to reach the Champions League round-of-16? As the league phase progresses, we won't know for sure until closer to the end. However, Opta has calculated that 15 points out of a possible 24 is the most likely requirement. This means that a team would need to win five out of eight games to secure their spot in the round-of-16. But the margins are tight, as even with 15 points, there is only a 73% chance of making it into the top eight. In fact, 16 points would give a team a 98% chance, while 14 points would only give them a 28% chance. As UEFA emphasizes, every point and every goal matters in this competition.
For those teams that don't quite make the cut for the round-of-16, the next question is - how many points are needed to reach the Champions League play-offs? Again, we won't know for sure until nearer the time, but Opta has calculated that 10 points would almost certainly guarantee a spot in the play-offs. However, with nine points, there is still a 69% chance of progression, while eight points only gives a 16% chance. This means that a team could potentially qualify for the knockouts by winning just three games and losing the other five.
But with so many teams competing and potentially finishing with the same number of points, how will the tiebreakers be determined? The first tiebreaker used will be goal difference, followed by goals scored, away goals scored, wins, and away wins. If all of these factors fail to differentiate the teams, then the higher number of points obtained collectively by league phase opponents, followed by the superior collective goal difference of league phase opponents, and then the higher number of goals scored collectively by league phase opponents will be considered. If all else fails, the teams' UEFA club coefficient ranking will be used.
As for the knockout phase, UEFA has confirmed that it will be seeded. In the play-off round, teams that finish between 9th-16th will be seeded, meaning they will play away to a team who finished 17th-24th in the first leg before hosting the second. The top eight finishers will also be seeded for the round-of-16, where they will face the play-off winners. However, the draw for who plays who in the knockouts will not be entirely random, as UEFA has hinted that the results of the league phase will play some role in determining the match-ups.
So, as we eagerly await the start of the Champions League league phase, it's clear that this new format will bring even more excitement and competition to the already prestigious competition. With teams like Arsenal, who reached the quarter-finals last season, and Manchester City, who won their only Champions League title in 2023, in the mix, it's sure to be a thrilling and unpredictable season. Stay tuned for all the latest news, exclusives, and analysis on the Champions League.
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