What is the process of exit polls and how reliable are they?

David Dimbleby, a prominent figure in the world of media and politics, has expressed his disdain for exit polls, calling them "the worst invention ever." These polls, released when polling stations close at 10pm during general elections, are highly anticipated as they offer a more reliable prediction of the final vote compared to surveys released in the weeks leading up to the election. However, the UK's electoral system makes it difficult to accurately predict the outcome.

Despite this challenge, the British exit poll is considered one of the best in the world, thanks in part to its co-creator, Professor John Curtice, who has become a leading expert on voting behavior. So, how exactly do these exit polls work? Well, it all began in 2005 when Prof Curtice and statistician David Firth developed the model that is still used today.

Essentially, voters are randomly selected and asked who they voted for as they leave their polling station. However, due to limited time and resources, only about 20,000 people from 130 polling stations are surveyed, which is a small sample compared to the millions who vote at the 40,000 stations across the UK. These voters are also asked to "vote" again on a mock ballot paper that is placed into the exit poll.

Throughout the day, the interviewers send their results back to Ipsos, the polling organization in charge. But the work doesn't end there, as layers of statistical analysis are used to accurately represent the entire country. This is crucial because voting behavior can vary between different types of polling stations and regions.

There are also other factors to consider, such as voters who refuse to participate in the survey or those who vote by post. To account for these variables, the exit poll organizers carefully study past election results to understand how voting behavior may have changed. As a result, the polls are typically conducted in the same locations each time.

But how accurate are these exit polls? While it's difficult to measure their accuracy since they aren't solely based on random sampling, they have a track record of being extremely close to the actual results. In the 2010 election, the exit poll correctly predicted the exact number of seats won by the Conservative party. And since 2005, it has accurately predicted the majority three times and been off by less than ten seats in two instances.

However, its largest miss was in 2015, when it underestimated the majority by 30 seats. This level of accuracy has led to David Dimbleby, a well-known face on election night, to call the exit poll "the bane of the broadcaster's life." In an interview with The Guardian, he expressed his frustration with the poll, saying it takes away the excitement and suspense of his job. "It's like a thriller and you're given the answer before we've even started on page one," he said.

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