November 5th 2024.
The 2020 US election has been marked by a unique phenomenon known as the "red mirage" or the "blue shift". This refers to the situation where Republican candidates appear to have a lead on election night, but as mail-in ballots are counted in the following days, the lead is often overtaken by Democratic candidates. This has been attributed to the rise in mail-in voting and the varying rules surrounding the timing of counting these ballots. Former President Donald Trump has used this trend to support his baseless claims of election fraud.
On November 3, 2020, when most Americans went to bed, the outcome of the election between then-President Trump and now-President Joe Biden was far from clear. The race was still too close to call in key states such as Arizona, North Carolina, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Maine, Georgia, and Pennsylvania. The following days were filled with anticipation as votes were being counted in these states. It wasn't until November 6, when CNN projected a Biden win, that the race was called. However, the counting continued, and it wasn't until four days later, on November 7, that CNN officially declared Biden the winner.
An analysis by researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology found that counties won by Biden counted slower than those won by Trump. This trend was also seen in the 2016 election, but it was not decisive. As CNN's Marshall Cohen wrote, Hillary Clinton conceded the election when she was still trailing in the popular vote. However, as more ballots were counted, she ended up winning the popular vote by millions. In 2020, the slowest-counting states were predominantly Democratic states like California, where every registered voter received a mail-in ballot. This could lead to a blue shift in the popular vote, even if it does not significantly delay the presidential election results.
It's important to remember that although news networks like CNN may project a winner, the official certification of the results is not complete until later. Each state has its own certification deadline, with December 11, 2024 being the final deadline for all states to complete recounts and settle disputes. This year, the process may be quicker in some key states due to changes in their election laws. In Georgia, for example, more people are expected to vote early in person, which could speed up the counting process. Additionally, North Carolina no longer accepts mail-in ballots that arrive after Election Day.
However, in states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, where ballots cannot be processed before Election Day, the count may take longer. The Centre for Election Innovation & Research has a breakdown of the various rules and timelines for processing mail-in ballots. Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, a Democrat, is hopeful that the results will be known by the end of November 6, the day after the election. She also stated that accuracy and security will always be prioritized over efficiency.
In the case of a close election, it could still take days to determine the winner. Al Schmidt, the top election official in Pennsylvania, emphasized the importance of trust in the election process during this time. He noted that in the 2020 election, there was a period of vulnerability between the polls closing and the race being called, as people attempted to undermine confidence in the results. However, in the end, the Pennsylvania results were not as close as initially thought. It's worth noting that the closest elections can take time to determine, as seen in the 2000 election where it took 36 days until the US Supreme Court intervened and declared a winner.
As we await the results of the 2024 election, it's also uncertain how long it will take to determine the winner. Just like in 2000, there is a possibility that the outcome may not be clear for some time. The winner may not be known until December 13, when the electoral votes are counted. And in a unique twist, if Kamala Harris becomes the vice president, she will be the fourth in history to oversee the counting of electoral votes in her own defeat or victory. Only time will tell how long it will take to determine the winner, but one thing is for sure: the process must be accurate and secure, even if it takes a little longer.
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