Trade is once again becoming a highly politicized topic, with countries and leaders taking stands on issues such as tariffs and international agreements.
The world economy is changing. Conflicts and competition between major countries, along with changes in trade policies and institutions, have made trade a battleground for power and influence, not just economic growth. This has important implications for India.
The global economy is currently undergoing a major transformation. With ongoing wars in Europe and West Asia, a growing rivalry between the US and China, the return of tariffs, and the weakening of multilateral institutions, trade has become a battleground for power rather than a set of rules. Along with economic growth, trade is now seen as a means of promoting security, resilience, and influence. For India, this presents both challenges and opportunities.
In the past, global trade was largely driven by gradual liberalization under the WTO, with major economies tolerating asymmetries in the name of development. However, this consensus has now collapsed. Protectionism and economic nationalism have resurfaced, and there is growing scepticism towards globalization.
With the current state of affairs, would BRICS be a viable option for India? At the moment, relations with the US are improving, and tensions with BRICS partners have thawed. Venezuela, for example, faced consequences for attempting to strengthen ties with BRICS and trading its oil in currencies other than the US dollar. India also recently postponed a military drill with BRICS partners off the South African coast. Despite this, India's 7.4% growth is still considered an achievement, even though it is not as high as the previous year. The country aims to maintain a continuous growth rate of 8%, which will require reducing taxes and working towards faster growth. In fact, rail fares have already been raised twice in a year, and taxes on certain products have been increased to generate additional revenue and reduce the deficit.
India's external trade profile has undergone a significant shift in recent years. While trade still only makes up a small percentage of the country's GDP, the composition has changed to include higher-value goods and services. India is no longer just a low-end exporter, as it now has globally competitive industries such as IT, finance, design, and R&D. Furthermore, the country's goods exports now include pharmaceuticals, engineering products, chemicals, and electronics components. The US and EU remain India's top export markets, highlighting the country's deep integration with advanced economies.
In the past, India has used the multilateral system to protect its policy space, often claiming special treatment under GATT and the WTO while resisting deeper commitments. However, with the WTO currently stalled, trade has shifted towards bilateral and regional deals, an area where India has been hesitant and has struggled to secure favorable terms.
The re-politicization of trade has been exemplified by the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, which have shattered the belief that advanced economies would continue to tolerate trade imbalances. On the other end of the spectrum, Venezuela serves as a cautionary tale of the devastating effects of sanctions, trade isolation, and overdependence on a narrow export base. India can learn from this experience and must diversify its trade partners, payment systems, and supply chains as a strategic measure.
In this context, BRICS has gained renewed relevance for India. It offers the potential to diversify trade, secure energy and commodities, and provide diplomatic leverage. However, China's dominance in the group, limited trade complementarities among BRICS members, and differing political systems limit its potential. BRICS cannot replace access to US and European markets, and therefore, it should be seen as a balancing instrument rather than a destination.
With these factors in mind, India faces three strategic choices in terms of trade: Trade Zero, Diet Trade, and Trade Regular. Trade Zero prioritizes the domestic market and uses trade mainly to manage surpluses while protecting domestic producers. This approach may limit political risk, but it also offers weak growth and runs the risk of marginalizing India in a world that demands reciprocal trade. Diet Trade, on the other hand, takes a middle path by deepening trade with trusted partners in high-value goods and services while also protecting sensitive sectors. This approach may yield incremental gains but falls short of India's ambitions. Finally, Trade Regular is the most ambitious option, positioning India as a hub connecting major economies through deeper integration, upgraded agreements, and domestic reforms. While this approach demands higher standards and reciprocity, it also offers the greatest rewards in terms of access to markets, technology, capital, and influence.
In a world where tariffs and sanctions can have severe consequences for unprepared countries, and blocs like BRICS offer only partial shelter, India must move from hesitation to strategic thinking when it comes to trade. It is no longer just a matter of ideology; trade is now a means of wielding power, and India must learn to use it deliberately.