March 5th 2025.
Europe has stated unequivocally that they will not accept a peace deal for Ukraine that has been brokered by the US, specifically by President Donald Trump. The sentiment of European leaders was captured by British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who declared at a summit in London on March 2nd that Europe has a unique opportunity to secure their safety for generations to come. This came just three days after Trump and Vice President JD Vance strongly criticized Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for challenging the ceasefire proposal that Trump had previously arranged with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Starmer outlined three main objectives for the summit: addressing Ukraine's immediate needs, reaching a lasting agreement to end the conflict, and creating strong security guarantees. However, Trump had rejected Zelenskyy's passionate plea for the US to provide security guarantees before agreeing to a ceasefire with Putin. Trump argued that the business deal between the US and Ukraine, involving the extraction of valuable minerals, was in itself a guarantee of security. Zelenskyy, on the other hand, pointed out that Putin had violated ceasefire agreements 25 times since 2014 with no repercussions, making a ceasefire without security guarantees from the US meaningless based on past experiences.
As Zelenskyy left Washington feeling defeated, he turned to European countries for support in defending against Russian aggression. The UK, France, Italy, and other European countries quickly reassured Ukraine of their support through concrete measures, such as signing multi-million pound deals for arms and materials to be provided by the UK. In his opening statement at the summit, Starmer assured Zelenskyy, "I hope you know that we stand with you and the people of Ukraine for as long as it takes. Everyone around this table is united in this." This was a source of hope for Ukraine, but it also caused alarm for Russia, who had previously praised Trump and Vance for reprimanding Zelenskyy.
The summit was attended by French President Emmanuel Macron, outgoing Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, and other leaders from Europe, the European Union, and NATO. Their united front in support of Ukraine brought a smile to Zelenskyy's face. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni emphasized the importance of avoiding division within the West over the conflict in Ukraine, stating, "We must prevent the West from splitting." Both Starmer and Macron may play key roles in finding a peace process that is acceptable to both Trump and Europe, as they have developed relationships with the US President.
In his speech, Macron left no room for confusion about who the aggressor is, in stark contrast to Trump's conciliatory approach towards Putin. He stated clearly, "There is an aggressor: Russia." Similarly, Starmer took a firm stance, declaring, "This is not a time for words, it's time for action." As a result, the leaders present at the summit moved forward with their plan to negotiate a ceasefire in Ukraine. Starmer also mentioned to the media that he was collaborating with France and a few other nations to develop a plan to end the fighting, which would then be presented to the US.
In an interview with a French newspaper, Macron outlined his proposal for a limited ceasefire in Ukraine lasting one month. He also mentioned that the second phase would involve placing troops on the ground. This plan directly opposes the negotiation process that Trump's administration had initiated with Russia the previous month. However, it also indicates that Europe is aware that their plan will only be successful if Trump gives his approval. It is believed that European leaders have resolved to persuade Trump to accept their proposal. As part of this strategy, Zelenskyy announced at the London summit that he is willing to sign a deal with the US for mineral extraction in Ukraine. This deal had not been finalized after Trump and Vance had pressured Zelenskyy.
As expected, the Kremlin was not pleased with the developments at the London summit. They had hoped that Trump's aggressive stance towards Zelenskyy would convince European leaders to fall in line and accept the peace terms proposed by the US President, which seemed to heavily favor Russia's interests. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov expressed his dissatisfaction, stating that the funding pledges from European leaders, including a $2 billion deal for air defense missiles from the UK, would only prolong the war. While it is understandable that these European leaders are supporting Ukraine, it is also important to acknowledge that Western powers are fearful of Putin and his intentions. If Ukraine falls, Poland would become the front line, followed by Germany, and potentially the rest of Europe, which would be vulnerable to the swift advancement of the Russian army. It is also worth noting that it seems that war is the only thing that brings these leaders together; they never seem to unite for the sake of peace.
This frustration is evident in Peskov's statement that someone should pressure Zelenskyy to change his stance, as he does not want peace. One positive aspect of the Trump era is that countries like Ukraine, the UK, Poland, Taiwan, France, Italy, South Korea, and Japan have been forced to consider creating their own alternate defense forces and to stop relying on the US. India too must learn to play their cards wisely in the present and future.
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