January 3rd 2025.
In a recent study conducted by the SBI, it was found that rural poverty has significantly decreased to 4.86% in the fiscal year ending in March 2024 from 25.7% in 2011-12. This positive trend can be attributed to the various support programs implemented by the government. The study also revealed that urban poverty has decreased to 4.09% from 13.7% in 2011-12.
According to the SBI's research on consumption expenditure survey, the decline in rural poverty can be attributed to the growth in consumption among the lowest 0-5% decile, along with the government's support. The study also noted that fluctuations in food prices have a significant impact on overall expenditure, making government support crucial. The latest Household Consumption Expenditure Survey, released by the Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation, showed a decrease in consumption inequality in both rural and urban areas during the period of August 2023 to July 2024.
Further analysis of the Consumption Expenditure Survey revealed a remarkable decline in rural poverty, estimated at 4.86% in 2023-24, and urban poverty, estimated at 4.09%. However, these numbers may be subject to minor changes once the 2021 census is completed and the new rural-urban population share is published. The study predicts that urban poverty may continue to decrease in the future. At a national level, poverty rates in India are now estimated to be in the range of 4-4.5%, with minimal extreme poverty.
The SBI research also highlighted the role of enhanced physical infrastructure in improving rural mobility and narrowing the income gap between rural and urban areas. This, along with initiatives such as direct benefit transfers, infrastructure development, and efforts to increase farmers' income, has greatly improved rural livelihoods. The study also found that food inflation has a greater impact on consumption demand in low-income states compared to high-income states. This could be due to the fact that people in low-income states are more risk-averse.
The study also compared savings rates across different states and found that most high-income states have a savings rate higher than the national average. On the other hand, states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar have low savings rates, possibly due to higher outward migration. The study estimated the new poverty line to be Rs 1,632 in rural areas and Rs 1,944 in urban areas for the year 2023-24. Overall, the decline in poverty rates and the improvement in rural livelihoods are positive indicators of economic growth and development in India.
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