September 30th 2025.
In the past two weeks, there has been an increase in reports from European countries about unauthorized entry into their airspace. The most recent incident involved drones flying over Danish airports on September 25th. This comes right after similar occurrences in Poland, Romania, Estonia, and over a German naval frigate in the Baltic Sea. Many believe that Russia is responsible for these incidents, although they have strongly denied any involvement. However, this behavior is consistent with Russia's history of provocation and escalating conflicts.
These actions suggest that Russia is testing Europe's ability to defend Ukraine in the face of their renewed attacks. The drones in Danish skies were spotted soon after US President Donald Trump's remarks at the UN session on September 23rd, where he stated that Ukraine could regain its lost territory. This only adds to the suspicion that Russia is behind these incidents. Trump even suggested that NATO countries should shoot down Russian aircraft that enter their airspace, but that may not be as easy as it sounds. What is significant is that Trump has completely changed his stance on Ukraine's ability to stand up against Russia. After previously disregarding and even threatening Ukraine to surrender to Russia's aggression and annexation of their territories, Trump now acknowledges their potential to reclaim the one-fifth of their land that has been lost since 2014. This includes Crimea, which was annexed by Russia, as well as the Kremlin's support of separatists and their full-scale invasion planned for 2022. The question, however, remains whether we can trust the judgment of a leader who fails to differentiate between the aggressor and the victim.
Earlier this year, Trump declared that Russian President Vladimir Putin had all the power and urged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to make peace on terms that would essentially mean surrendering to the aggressor. Trump has proven himself to be an indecisive leader, and now he claims that his change of heart is the result of a thorough understanding of the military and economic situation between Ukraine and Russia. He has also offered to continue supplying American weapons to NATO, giving them the freedom to use them as they see fit. There are speculations as to what has motivated Trump to suddenly show support for Ukraine's liberation and denounce Moscow's military actions. It is worth noting that his attitude towards Ukraine seems to fluctuate depending on Putin's approval or disapproval of him.
With encouragement from European leaders, Trump's attitude towards Zelenskyy has seemingly shifted from disdain to courteousness with a hint of respect. There are reasons to believe that Trump's anti-Russian stance is a result of Putin's lack of cooperation and his partnership with Chinese President Xi Jinping, who has shown no interest in stopping the sale of crude oil to India at discounted rates. This suggests that Russia's war in Ukraine has not weakened as much as the US President had hoped with his tariff war and penalties imposed on India for their purchase of Russian crude. This may have prompted Trump to take a stand against Russia by pledging support through arms supply and expressing confidence in Ukraine's ability to regain their lost territories. Critics and opponents may doubt his true motives, as he has demonstrated inconsistency in his military and economic policies. When asked if he still trusts Putin, Trump replied that he would know in a month, leaving room for yet another change of heart if it serves his interests. He may revert to his previous stance that Russia is not at fault, and Ukraine is in the wrong.
One key factor in Trump's belief that Ukraine can reclaim their territories from Russia is his statement that they can do so with the help of their European allies. However, he has not made any promises to come to their aid, at least not yet. This may be encouraging Putin to continue with their drone incursions into European skies. As a result, political and military analysts are skeptical about Trump's newfound conviction in Ukraine's ability to win. It could be that Trump is thinking like a businessman, which he is. He has access to information that suggests Russia's economy is struggling. The combination of Western sanctions, slower domestic growth, high inflation, budget deficits, and rising interest rates have significantly impacted Russia's economy this year.
The Kremlin, of course, responded to Trump's comments, stating that they have no choice but to continue the war and labeling the US President's statement as "mistaken." They may not be far from the truth. Trump's sudden support for Ukraine could be an attempt to salvage his reputation after Putin failed to meet his expectations, crushing his hopes of winning the Nobel Peace Prize.
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