September 21st 2024.
Scientists have been using advanced technology to study the Thwaites Glacier in Antarctica, known as the "Doomsday Glacier," and their findings suggest that it is melting at an alarming rate. This could have catastrophic consequences for global sea level rise if the trend continues.
The International Thwaites Glacier Collaboration, formed in 2018, has been conducting research on the glacier to gain a better understanding of its potential collapse. Their extensive studies have provided the most comprehensive insights into this ever-changing glacier. Unfortunately, the outlook is not optimistic, as the scientists have concluded that the glacier's retreat is accelerating and will continue to do so in the coming years.
According to Rob Larter, a marine geophysicist and member of the ITGC team, Thwaites could collapse within the next 200 years, which would have devastating effects on the planet. The glacier holds enough water to raise sea levels by over a meter. However, due to its role as a "cork" for the vast Antarctic ice sheet, its collapse could ultimately result in a sea level rise of 10 feet. This would be catastrophic for coastal communities around the world, from Miami and London to Bangladesh and the Pacific Islands.
Scientists have known for some time that Thwaites was vulnerable, partly due to its unique location on sloping land. As more ice melts, more of it is exposed to warm ocean water, further accelerating the melting process. However, the mechanisms behind this retreat were not fully understood. The ITGC's research aimed to shed light on this issue, and their findings have been eye-opening.
One of their experiments involved sending a torpedo-shaped robot, called Icefin, to the glacier's grounding line — the point where the ice meets the seabed. This location is a critical vulnerability point for the glacier. The images captured by Icefin revealed that Thwaites is melting in unexpected ways, with warm ocean water able to flow through deep cracks and "staircase" formations in the ice.
Another study used satellite and GPS data to examine the impact of tides on the glacier. They discovered that seawater was able to penetrate over 10 kilometers beneath Thwaites, pushing warm water under the ice and causing rapid melting.
In addition to studying the glacier's present state, the ITGC also delved into its past. By analyzing marine sediment cores, a team of scientists was able to reconstruct Thwaites' history and found evidence of rapid retreat in the 1940s, likely due to a powerful El Niño event.
Despite the concerning findings, there is some good news. Computer modeling has shown that while the potential collapse of Thwaites' ice shelves is a real possibility, it may be less likely than previously thought.
However, this does not mean that Thwaites is out of danger. The scientists predict that the entire glacier, along with the Antarctic Ice Sheet behind it, could be gone by the 23rd century. Even if we were to stop burning fossil fuels immediately, it may be too late to save Thwaites.
As the ITGC's current phase of research comes to a close, the scientists emphasize the need for further study to fully comprehend this complex glacier and determine if its retreat is irreversible. Eric Rignot, a glaciologist and member of the ITGC, remains concerned about the glacier's current state, stating, "I remain very worried that this sector of Antarctica is already in a state of collapse."
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