May 14th 2024.
A new study has revealed that the summer of 2023 was the hottest in the northern hemisphere in over 2,000 years. This came as no surprise to many, as numerous weather agencies had already declared last year as the hottest month, summer, and year on record. However, these records only date back to 1850, as they are based on thermometer readings.
But now, thanks to modern technology and a well-established method, scientists are able to go back even further to the year 1 on the Western calendar. This is the same year that the Bible states Jesus Christ walked the Earth. And unfortunately, their findings show that last year's summer temperatures were the highest yet in the northern hemisphere.
Lead author Jan Esper, a climate geographer from Germany, explained that their study, published in the journal Nature, used over 10,000 tree rings to calculate temperatures for each year since the year 1. And according to their findings, no other year even came close to the extreme heat experienced last summer.
In fact, the hottest year before humans started contributing to climate change was way back in the year 246. This was during the medieval period when Roman Emperor Philip the Arab was battling Germans along the Danube River.
But now, 25 out of the last 28 years have been hotter than that early medieval summer, according to study co-author Max Torbenson. "That gives us a good idea of how extreme 2023 is," Esper added.
The team studied thousands of trees from 15 different sites in the northern hemisphere, north of the tropics. They were able to gather enough data to accurately estimate temperatures going all the way back to the year 1. However, there wasn't enough data in the Southern Hemisphere to publish their findings, but Esper mentioned that the sparse data showed a similar trend.
To calculate temperatures from the past, scientists look at the rings of annual tree growth and match them back in time, assigning annual dates to each ring. This method, according to Torbenson, is like putting together a puzzle. However, some experts, like University of Pennsylvania climate scientist Michael Mann, question why the study only goes back to the year 1 when other reconstructions have gone back over 20,000 years.
Esper defended their decision, saying that tree rings are the most precise and reliable method for estimating summer temperatures. They provide a higher resolution than other proxies, such as ice cores and corals.
But not everyone agrees with this approach. Berkeley Earth climate scientist Zeke Hausfather, who was not involved in the study, believes that the global temperature records set last summer were so extreme that they may even be the warmest in 120,000 years. However, he did acknowledge that there is not enough data to confirm this, as records only go back to the year 1.
Esper also addressed the issue of the pre-industrial period of 1850 to 1900, which is used as a base period for measuring warming. He believes that this period may have been slightly cooler than previously thought, as the instruments used back then were often exposed to the hot sun. This means that the warming from human-caused climate change may be slightly underestimated.
Looking at the temperature records over the last 150 years, Esper noticed a pattern of slow rises followed by sudden jumps, like what happened last summer. He attributed these jumps to natural phenomena, such as El Nino, which warms the central Pacific and affects weather patterns globally. And he warned that we may see another significant jump in the next 10 to 15 years, which is a cause of concern for the future of our planet.
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