Donald Trump is remaking the US – Middle East power relationship in a four day swing through the region that includes a reapproachment with Syria after terrorist Abu Mohammad al-Julani became Ahmned al-Sharaa and interim President of Syria after defeating dictator Bashar al-Assad in a lightning quick 12-day military campaign that included seizing the capital, Damascus.
It’s hard to trump seizing your opponent’s capital.
President Trump greeted by MBS — defacto ruler of Saudi Arabia. Mohammed bin Salman. I still think of MBS as the guy running the show when that journalist got chopped up, Mohammed Bone Saw.
A year ago he was a terrorist with a $10,000,000 price on his head from the United States. His nom de guerre was Abu Mohammad al-Julani, a name he abandoned when he shorted the terror racket — so he says — and became the interim President of Syria as Ahmed al-Sharaa.
MBS set up a blind date between Trump 2.0 and the new President of Syria. Somebody straighten the guy’s tie, please.
“Interim” is a different deal in the Middle East, apparently, as President al-Sharaa has promised to hold elections within 4 years after committing to drafting a new constitution within 3 years.
[Frame of reference: US Constitution took 4 months to draft, 2 years and 8 months to ratify by all 13 Colonies.]
President al-Sharaa was in medical school when he became radicalized and a terrorist. One oddity of his terrorism gig was the opposition of his particular brand of terrorism to the half-century-sitting regime of the Assad family in Syria. The Assad regime was a bloody, horrific, chemical-weapons against-its-own-people bloodthirsty, Russian-allied band of cutthroats. Very bad juju.
Then Abu Mohammad al-Julani controlled a large swath of Syria before he went to topple the government. In that time period, the new president converted from terrorist garb to wearing dark suits and running the government in those areas since 2017.
We have had an opportunity to study this former terrorist and there does, in fact, seem to be some evidence he has a nationalist spirit.
Ahhh, dear reader, the deal with Syria is this:
1. Syria has been under the control of the Assad crime family for more than half a century. This ended last year.
2. During the Assad times, Syria twice participated in unsuccessful wars against Israel, the US’s only real ally in the region.
3. Syria — like Egypt — was under the influence of Russia.
Egypt spit the Russian bit after the 1973 Yom Kippur War when it got its ass handed to it by the Israelis. Thereafter, Kissinger pried Russia’s hands off the Egyptian neck and a period of relative peace ensued between Egypt and Israel.
4. Russia (Syria’s only arms supplier) derived substantial benefits from Syria — a country with whom they had a relationship since World War II and had supported in its 1946 struggle to become independent of France — including a major naval base, Tartus on the Mediterranean since 1971, that provided a basing and maintenance hub for the Russian Black Sea Fleet.
In addition, there is an airbase, Khmeimim Airbase since 2015, that provides a similar major Russian presence that supports activities in the Middle East and Africa.
There are also two supersecret Russian listening bases for signals intel in Syria.
These facilities are the only Russian overseas military facilities, so it’s a big issue for Putin and his deflating international prestige.
5. The new Syrian government has mumbled that it will not immediately mess with these critical Russian facilities, but the Russians withdrew a substantial portion of its assets to use in Ukraine. Putin can’t like the Syrians cozying up to Trump 2.0, but Trump 2.0 has a much bigger checkbook than the broke Orcs.
The economic reality is that Russia cannot afford this overseas deployment and the political reality is their client — the Assad Crime Family — is kaput.
6. Syria has been bad news and has been plagued by civil war (2011 – 2024).
Trump 1.0 intervened in Syria on a number of occasions with the most noteworthy being two salvos of more than 50 submarine launched cruise missiles hitting Assad’s chemical weapons infrastructure that seemed to cure the problem.
The deal is that Trump 2.0 is making a play to draw Syria back into the league of civilized nations by taking several specific risky actions:
1. Trump 2.0 has effectively recognized the government of Syria in the hands of the former terrorist upon whose head the US had a $10,000,000 bounty.
2. Trump 2.0 has lifted all economic sanctions on Syria with an eye toward fashioning an economic relationship with Syria as part of Trump’s emerging foreign policy thrust: Peace through prosperity. This is a bold move, but seems a smart gamble.
3. Trump 2.0 will use its new leverage to force the Russians out and to cancel their leases on Tartus naval base and Khmeimim air base. This would be a huge win for the world, the US, the region, and a kick in the nuts to the Russians mostly from an optics perspective.
4. Trump 2.0 wants Syria to formally end the state of hostilities with Israel that has existed since 1973 and to enter into the Abraham Accords to normalize relations with Israel.
5. This move would have the added impact of neutering the training camps of many terror organizations, destroying an overland transport route for Iranian sourced weapons, push Iran to the curb, and unite the Middle East under the aegis of the Abraham Accords. Big move.
6. Trump 2.0 wants to unite the Middle East as a means also to deal with the Palestinian problem. Hint: Hamas going back to running Gaza is not part of that solution.
7. Trump 2.0 is dealing with all the accumulated baggage in the US Middle East foreign policy.
Lousy relationship with Israel and Bibi.
Lousy relationship with Saudi Arabia and no sword dancing Biden.
Iran — no nukes and no more proxy terrorists
Gaza, the Palestinians
The Houthis and free passage of ships through all adjoining waters
The global oil industry
Big To Do List, but Trump 2.0 is a doer.
Well, dear reader, this feels like a gigantic play — the sort of big play we have begun to expect from Trump 2.0.
1. It has the potential to fill in the cesspool of war, terrorism, and terror training that has been Syria. It poses that ageless question: Can a pariah become a partner?
2. It has the potential to kick both Russia and Iran in the nuts and to push their influence out of both the region and the Israel sweepstakes.
3. Pax Trump is evolving and emerging to become “peace through prosperity” and it could work here.
4. It flips the former US policy — “We don’t negotiate with terrorists” — on its ass. No problem with that as long as we know with whom we are dealing.
It takes more than a dark suit, a white shirt, and a tie to become a democratic national leader, but then maybe the English thought the Founding Fathers were terrorists?
I am very high on the overall gambit, but I wonder if it started out this way on purpose or by accident.
But, hey, what the Hell do I really know anyway? I’m just a Big Red Car.
