October 8th 2024.
In a recent interview, renowned historian and American University professor Allan Lichtman shared his prediction for the outcome of the 2024 presidential election. This prediction has gained significant attention, as Lichtman has a track record of correctly calling almost every US presidential election over the past four decades.
With his "13 keys to the White House," Lichtman confidently stated that Vice President Kamala Harris will defeat former President Donald Trump in the upcoming election. These keys are based on 120 years of election results and assess the performance of the party in the White House, rather than relying on polling data.
When asked if an "October surprise" could potentially sway his prediction, Lichtman dismissed this idea as a "myth of American politics." He explained that his keys focus on the overall performance of the incumbent, rather than any last-minute developments.
Lichtman's keys include factors such as midterm gains, incumbency, primary contest, third party, short-term economy, long-term economy, policy change, social unrest, White House scandal, incumbent charisma, challenger charisma, foreign policy failure, and foreign policy success. If six or more of these keys are false, it would indicate that Harris will lose the election.
At the time of the interview, Lichtman had already predicted that Harris would lose three keys – midterm gains, incumbency, and incumbent charisma. However, he did not call the foreign policy failure and foreign policy success keys, stating that even if they were false, Harris would still only have five false keys, which would not be enough for Trump to regain the White House.
Despite facing criticism for his prediction, including from FiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver, Lichtman stands by his methodology. He explained that once he makes his final prediction, he does not change it, and he respects others who have a different approach.
Lichtman's prediction has withstood the test of an "October surprise" before, as he was one of the few who correctly predicted that Trump would win the 2016 election. Even when the infamous Access Hollywood tape emerged just a month before the election, Lichtman's prediction remained unchanged, and Trump ultimately emerged as the victor.
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