Every day, I see or read some fascinating prediction about where the world is heading.
Many of these predictions are based on some fact – the impact of AI on entry level jobs, impact of political uncertainty, etc.
But the range of these is mind boggling. There are many predicting widespread unemployment in the next five years, others who are concerned about AI’s impact on our ability to think, others who believe we’re headed for a major social-economic crisis, a few worried about AI taking over and destroying humanity, others worried about the impact of a changing global order, and so on.
The one thing I remind myself when I see these predictions is – nobody knows.
Or more accurately, I say to myself – nobody fucking knows.
We are dealing with more systemic change all at once than anyone can comprehend. The second and third order effects in a complex system create conditions where changes are happening so fast that it is hard to know what to respond to.
One thing is for certain – there’s no point overreacting to every high confidence prediction.
Nobody knows.
