October 31st 2024.
Nathan MacKinnon had an incredible season last year, breaking the franchise record with 140 points. This year, despite the Avalanche facing numerous injuries and availability problems, he is still producing at a high rate. The team is still a powerhouse on offense when he's on the ice, generating a high number of chances both at even strength and on the power play. However, there is one notable difference in the first 11 games of this season.
MacKinnon is shooting less.
Compared to last season, MacKinnon has 38 shots on goal and 73 shot attempts, which averages to 3.45 shots and 6.64 attempts per game. In the previous season, MacKinnon led the NHL in shots on goal with 405 and was fourth in shot attempts with 692. When asked about this change, MacKinnon simply stated that he focuses on making the right play.
But this strategy seems to be working for him, as he is currently tied for third in the NHL in points with 18. Despite the team's struggles with shooting luck when he's on the ice, MacKinnon is on pace for 134 points, which is just shy of his franchise-record 140 points from last season. However, MacKinnon is not alone in shooting less. His teammate Mikko Rantanen is also experiencing a decrease in shots and attempts. Although their underlying numbers still look strong, both players are down about half a shot attempt and shot on goal per game.
Rantanen acknowledges that the team could shoot more, especially during a losing streak. However, he also emphasizes the importance of making the right play instead of just shooting for the sake of shooting. This decrease in shots is most noticeable on the power play, where the Avalanche continue to dominate. They currently rank third in the NHL in power-play proficiency at 35.1% and are tied for the most goals scored with 13. MacKinnon and Cale Makar co-lead the NHL with nine power-play points.
Interestingly, MacKinnon has more points than shots, and so does Rantanen. Rantanen attributes this to most teams playing a diamond formation on the penalty kill, making it harder for them to take shots from the flanks. However, this also opens up opportunities for other players, such as Ross Colton and Ivan Ivan, who have combined for six power-play goals from the bumper position.
The fluidity of Colorado's power play setup allows for different players to take advantage of the open space, and when teams try to shut down MacKinnon and Rantanen, it leaves room for others to score. This has been evident in the success of players like Colton and Ivan next to MacKinnon and Rantanen. When Jonathan Drouin returns, his unique skills in manipulating space in the middle of the ice will offer yet another dynamic to the power play.
As Rantanen stated, when the team is struggling, the big guns will look to shoot more. MacKinnon had a season-high nine shots on goal and 15 shot attempts in the overtime win against Anaheim, when the team was desperate for a win. Coach Jared Bednar acknowledges that both MacKinnon and Rantanen, as well as the team as a whole, need to shoot more at times and create more traffic in front of the opposing goalie. The return of players like Drouin, Artturi Lehkonen, and Valeri Nichushkin could help with this aspect of the game.
Overall, the Avalanche have been generating a high number of expected goals, but they need to capitalize on these opportunities to be more successful. As Bednar puts it, they need to play a risk/reward game and take more chances to score. With the potential return of key players and the team's ability to adapt and find different ways to score, the Avalanche are poised to continue their dominance on the ice.
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