June 4th 2024.
In a surprising turn of events, the Trinamool Congress has emerged victorious in 29 of West Bengal's 42 Lok Sabha seats, defying all predictions made by exit polls. This has dealt a major blow to the Bharatiya Janata Party, who had set a target of securing at least 35 seats but could only manage to win in 12 constituencies according to the Election Commission's website.
Led by Mamata Banerjee, the TMC has once again shown its strength in the state by thwarting the BJP's formidable campaign, which was spearheaded by none other than Prime Minister Narendra Modi himself. Despite facing challenges such as corruption allegations and internal conflicts, the TMC remained resilient and chose to go solo after withdrawing from the INDIA bloc in the state.
Political experts believe that the BJP's ambitious goal of winning 35 Lok Sabha seats in West Bengal was primarily based on the implementation of the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) and Hindu polarisation. However, these tactics failed to make a significant impact due to internal divisions, organisational weaknesses, and the strong Left-Congress alliance.
According to political analyst Maidul Islam, the BJP's difficulties in securing anti-TMC votes were further exacerbated by its internal divisions, organisational frailties, and the impact of the Left-Congress alliance. As a result, the BJP's vote share decreased by three percentage points to 37, while the TMC's vote share increased to 47 per cent from 43 per cent in the previous Lok Sabha elections.
In the last elections, the TMC had won 22 seats, the BJP 18, and the Congress two. The Left Front, led by the Communist Party of India, had failed to win any seats in 2019 and seems to be repeating that performance this time as well, not leading in any of the 42 constituencies. Meanwhile, the Congress is leading in only one seat.
The breakdown of seat-sharing talks between the TMC and the Congress in January proved to be advantageous for Mamata Banerjee's party as it allowed them to consolidate nearly 30 per cent of the minority and anti-BJP votes in the absence of another credible "secular and stronger force." TMC leader Santanu Sen believes that this breakdown worked in their favor, stating that the Left and Congress were decimated and their party emerged as the strongest alternative to the BJP in the state. This is evident in the fact that the TMC even won in seats that were considered BJP strongholds.
The rise in the BJP's vote share from 17 per cent in 2014 to 40 per cent in 2019 was largely due to the consolidation of anti-TMC votes. However, this time around, local issues such as corruption allegations, the cancellation of SSC jobs, and the implementation of the CAA reshaped the election dynamics. These factors, along with Banerjee's comments against certain sections of the Ramakrishna Mission and Bharat Sevashram Sangha, and the OBC reservation issue, where the Calcutta High Court recently struck down the OBC status of several classes including 77 Muslim communities, helped solidify the TMC's minority support base.
Despite these issues intensifying communal polarisation, they also helped the TMC gain support from liberal and elite Bengalis who were previously leaning towards the Left and Congress. Additionally, welfare schemes such as Lakshmir Bhandar and Kanyashree, aimed at women, also played a significant role in solidifying the TMC's base among women voters who make up 50 per cent of the electorate.
Despite facing corruption charges, the SSC scam, and the Sandeshkhali issue where TMC leaders were accused of sexual abuse and land grab, the TMC's performance remained strong. Even in the Basirhat constituency, which includes Sandeshkhali, the TMC's candidate Haji Nurul Islam defeated the BJP's Rekha Patra by a margin of nearly two lakh votes.
Several factors did not work in the BJP's favor, despite Prime Minister Narendra Modi's efforts, with around 19 rallies held in West Bengal. The CAA did not resonate with voters as expected and instead led to minorities, who were previously undecided between the TMC and the Left-Congress alliance, consolidating behind the TMC. A BJP leader, who wished to remain anonymous, stated that although they emphasized the ideological significance of the CAA and likened it to the Ram Mandir issue at the national level, their poor organisational strength and failure to counter the TMC's campaign against the CAA on the ground were significant drawbacks.
Internal challenges within the BJP, such as dissatisfaction among cadres over ticket distribution, may have also contributed to the party's poor performance, with possible losses in Junglemahal and North Bengal, where they had won four seats in the previous Lok Sabha polls. According to political analyst Biswanath Chakraborty, the lack of a "Modi wave" and the BJP's organisational weaknesses were critical factors in their defeat.
Overall, the TMC's victory in the West Bengal Lok Sabha elections highlights their strategic maneuvering and ability to unite support despite facing obstacles. On the other hand, the BJP's losses demonstrate the need for strong organisational prowess and a compelling campaign approach to regain momentum in the region.
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