Is WWIII imminent as the US permits missile attacks on Russian territory?

Russian President Vladimir Putin has been making direct threats towards members of NATO and the West as tensions continue to rise in the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia. In response, US President Joe Biden has given Ukraine the green light to use Western-made long-range weapons to strike inside Russian territory, as the war enters its third year. This has been a long-awaited move by Ukraine, who had been requesting permission to use Western drones to help in their fight against Russia. However, the US and UK had previously held back for fear of escalating the situation.

But now, the tables have turned and Ukraine is reportedly gearing up for their first long-range attacks in the coming days. This decision to allow Ukraine to use these weapons has angered Putin, who warned that it would fundamentally change the nature of the conflict. In a state TV interview in September, he stated that it would essentially mean that NATO countries, including the US and European nations, were at war with Russia. He also added that if this were the case, Russia would have to make appropriate decisions based on the threats they would face.

The question on everyone's mind is whether the UK and US would actually go to war with Russia. In September, both Keir Starmer and David Lammy visited the US, possibly to discuss this very possibility. It's a complex situation, and there are concerns about potential retaliation from Russia when Ukraine starts using these long-range missiles against them. However, as we have seen in the past, threats do not always come to fruition.

According to Russian expert Keir Giles, there is no reason to believe that this move by Ukraine would be the final straw that would trigger a major response from the Kremlin. He also points out that the urgent delivery of aid to Ukraine now, as the Biden administration is coming to an end, raises questions about why it wasn't urgent before when Ukrainian lives were at stake. But the reality is that the standard Russian reaction to anything that upsets or surprises them is to intensify their campaigns against vulnerable targets in Ukrainian society, such as hospitals, schools, and critical infrastructure.

The possibility of Russia retaliating directly against the West in response to Ukraine's use of long-range missiles may be low, but it cannot be completely ruled out. The bigger question is, is Europe prepared for such a retaliation? This is a concern that has been raised multiple times in the past, as Putin has threatened the West before. According to Giles, Europe is not prepared for this scenario because it is still in a state of panic about the possibility of the US reducing its involvement in European defense. This has been a reliance for the past 80 years, and the idea of it being questioned is causing concern.

In February, then-president-elect Donald Trump had suggested that he wouldn't respond to Russian attacks on weaker NATO members who did not meet their defense spending obligations. Under the terms of the alliance, all NATO members are required to spend 2% of their GDP on defense. However, figures released earlier this year showed that only a handful of countries, including some eastern bloc nations, the UK, Greece, and the US, met or exceeded this requirement. Even with this, Giles says that Trump cannot be solely blamed for the refusal of Western European leaders to take responsibility for the defense of their countries.

The question on many people's minds is whether Putin would actually declare war on NATO and start World War III in response to Ukraine's use of Western missiles. While the chances may seem low, given the recent developments and changes within the Russian government, such as the appointment of a new deputy defense minister, it cannot be completely ruled out. If any NATO member is attacked by a foreign power, all other members are obligated to respond militarily. The reality is that no one can say for sure what will happen, but the possibility of a third world war seems higher than ever.

In the past, US officials have warned that Russia could respond in various ways if Ukraine is allowed to use Western missiles against them. This could include acts of arson and sabotage on facilities in Europe, as well as potentially lethal attacks on military bases in the US and Europe. Previous acts of sabotage in Europe have been attributed to Russia's military intelligence agency, the GRU. There are concerns that they could escalate their campaign if Ukraine starts using Western-made missiles in the war against Putin's forces.

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