May 27th 2024.
In an update released on Thursday, the India Meteorological Department announced that the core monsoon zone in India, which encompasses a majority of the country's rain-fed agriculture areas, is expected to receive above-normal rainfall this season. In contrast, the northeast region is expected to experience below-normal rainfall, while the northwest and central and south peninsular regions are predicted to receive normal and above-normal rainfall, respectively. These predictions were shared by Director General of IMD, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, during a virtual press conference.
Last month, the IMD had already hinted at the possibility of above-normal rainfall for the four-month monsoon season, with an estimated cumulative rainfall of 106% of the long-period average of 87 cm. "The core monsoon zone in India is likely to receive above-normal rainfall," reiterated Mohapatra during the press conference. This zone includes states like Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, and West Bengal, where agriculture primarily relies on rainfall.
While June is expected to see normal rainfall across the country, Mohapatra noted that there may be above-normal maximum temperatures in some parts of southern peninsular India. However, he also mentioned that conditions are favorable for the onset of monsoon over Kerala in the next five days. This news comes as a huge relief for the nation, which has been battling severe heat and drought-like conditions in some regions.
Despite the predicted normal cumulative rainfall, there is no guarantee of equal distribution of rain across the country, especially with the growing impact of climate change. In recent years, there has been a decrease in the number of rainy days, while heavy rain events have increased, resulting in more frequent droughts and floods. The monsoon is crucial for India's agricultural sector, with over half of the cultivated land relying on it. It also plays a vital role in replenishing reservoirs for drinking water and power generation.
According to the Central Water Commission, water levels in major reservoirs have dropped to only 24% of their live storage capacity, leading to water shortages in many states and impacting hydropower generation. The months of June and July are particularly critical for agriculture, as most of the sowing for the Kharif crop takes place during this period.
Scientists are also keeping an eye on the El Nino and La Nina phenomena, which can have significant effects on the monsoon. While El Nino is associated with weaker monsoon winds and drier conditions in India, La Nina typically brings plentiful rainfall. The current conditions indicate the presence of El Nino, but scientists predict a shift to La Nina by August or September. Interestingly, data from the past few decades has shown that India has received above-normal or normal monsoon in most La Nina years.
The IMD is also monitoring the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which is currently 'neutral' but is expected to turn positive by August. This could further aid in bringing rainfall to southern states. Lastly, the below-normal snow cover in the northern hemisphere and Eurasia may also impact the monsoon, as historically, there has been a correlation between low snow levels and above-normal rainfall in India.
In conclusion, while the IMD's predictions bring hope for a good monsoon season, it is essential to keep in mind the unpredictable nature of weather patterns and the impact of climate change on our environment. Let us hope for a bountiful monsoon that can help alleviate the water and power crisis in the country.
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