July 2nd 2024.
New Delhi: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced on Tuesday that the southwest monsoon has covered the entire country six days ahead of the normal date. This comes as a surprise, considering the monsoon's sluggish progress during mid-June. The IMD stated, "The southwest monsoon has further advanced into the remaining parts of Rajasthan, Haryana, and Punjab today. Thus, it covered the entire country on July 2, 2024, against the normal date of July 8."
The monsoon arrived in Kerala and the northeastern region on May 30, two and six days earlier than usual. It progressed normally up to Maharashtra but lost momentum in between. This has extended the wait for rains in West Bengal, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Madhya Pradesh, and worsened the impact of a scorching heat wave in northwest India. In fact, the country experienced 16 days of below-normal rainfall activity from June 11 to June 27, resulting in an overall below-normal precipitation in June. The month recorded 147.2 mm of rainfall, which is below the normal average of 165.3 mm, making it the seventh lowest since 2001.
June rainfall typically accounts for 15 per cent of the total precipitation of 87 cm during the four-month monsoon season in the country. The southwest monsoon makes its onset over Kerala by June 1 and covers the entire country by July 8. It starts retreating from northwest India around September 17 and withdraws entirely by October 15. Interestingly, this is the third consecutive year that the monsoon has covered the entire country ahead of schedule. In 2022 and 2021, the monsoon covered the entire country on July 2. In the last 10 years, the monsoon has covered the country earlier than the usual date seven times.
Last year, the monsoon arrived in Kerala on June 8, seven days behind the normal date, and covered the entire country by July 2, six days early. The monsoon also began its withdrawal from west Rajasthan on September 25, with an eight-day delay. The IMD has predicted that the monsoon will remain active over northwest, east, and northeast India during the next four to five days. There is a possibility of isolated very heavy rainfall in Bihar, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura from July 2–6. Furthermore, there is a high chance of isolated extremely heavy rainfall over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, and Meghalaya on July 5-6.
The Met office also warned of heavy rain spells in Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, parts of Gujarat, and coastal Karnataka during this period. On Monday, the weather department stated that India could experience above-normal rainfall in July, with heavy rains potentially leading to floods in the western Himalayan states and river basins in the central parts of the country. Meanwhile, the northeastern states are already battling severe floods. In Assam, over 6.71 lakh people have been affected in 20 districts in the second wave of flooding this year. Heavy rainfall in Manipur and Mizoram has caused rivers to reach warning levels and triggered landslides.
The year 2023 witnessed devastating floods in Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand in July and August, and in the Teesta river in the eastern Himalayas in October, despite below-average rainfall. The IMD had earlier forecast above-normal rainfall during the 2024 monsoon season in India, with cumulative precipitation estimated at 106 per cent of the long-period average of 87 cm. However, normal cumulative rainfall over the country during the monsoon season doesn't guarantee even spatial and temporal spread of precipitation.
The Indian monsoon is known for its inherent fluctuations and changes that occur over time due to various natural factors, also known as natural variability. However, research shows that climate change is making the monsoon more variable, resulting in more extreme weather and dry spells. According to the IMD, below-normal rainfall is expected in northeast India during the entire season, while the northwest is predicted to receive normal rainfall. On the other hand, above-normal rainfall is expected in central and south peninsular regions of the country.
The monsoon plays a critical role in India's agricultural landscape, with 52 per cent of the net cultivated area relying on it. It also replenishes reservoirs essential for drinking water and power generation across the country. June and July are considered the most important monsoon months for agriculture, as most of the sowing for the Kharif crops takes place during this period. IMD officials have also stated that La Nina conditions may set in by August, which could lead to plentiful rainfall during the monsoon season.
El Nino, the periodic warming of surface waters in the central Pacific Ocean, is associated with weaker monsoon winds and drier conditions in India. On the other hand, La Nina, the antithesis of El Nino, leads to plentiful rainfall during the monsoon season.
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