July 1st 2023.
Concerns over the southwest monsoon in India have been put to rest with a significant decrease in rainfall deficiency. The weather department has now predicted that the July rains could reach up to 100% of the benchmark long period average. This is good news for farmers as July is a crucial period for sowing kharif crops, with around 40% of the monsoon precipitation typically falling in that month.
The agriculture ministry has reported that the kharif sowing has bridged the annual deficiency for the first time this season. However, the area under paddy, the most important crop, is still over a quarter less compared to last year. This could be attributed to the El Nino conditions, which usually have an adverse impact on the monsoon. But this could be offset to a large extent by the development of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole.
The Meteorological Department has forecasted that the July rainfall is likely to be on the upper side of the "normal" range, which is 94-106% of the LPA. Moreover, the IMD has indicated that certain regions of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Assam, Punjab, Karnataka, and Tamil Nadu may experience "below normal" rainfall in the coming month. This could have an impact on paddy and pulses sowing in these states.
The forecast of normal monsoon rains is expected to boost the sowing of paddy, pulses, and cotton, which had been lagging behind. Meanwhile, the Meteorological Department has announced the development of a "low pressure" area over the Bay of Bengal, which is expected to bring widespread rainfall activities to India over the next three to five days.
Overall, the monsoon season has gotten off to a good start with the IMD's forecast made on May 26, predicting "normal" rainfall throughout the season at 96% of the LPA, remaining unchanged. This is likely to bring much-needed relief to farmers and the agricultural sector.
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