July 4th 2024.
Fatima Payman was once a proud member of the Labor Party, but her recent decision to leave the party has caused quite a headache for them. With the next federal election less than a year away, this defection to the crossbench means that Labor now has fewer seats in the upper house than they did at the beginning of 2022, when they were still in opposition.
Payman's initial election was a departure from the norm, as it gave Labor five of the 12 Senate seats from Western Australia. This was the first time this had happened since 1990, as their previous haul from the west had dropped to as low as three seats a decade ago. However, while the 2022 election saw a landslide victory for Labor in the House of Representatives, their success did not translate to the Upper House. The Greens were the main beneficiaries there, gaining three seats.
Payman's defection now leaves the government on equal terms with the Liberals, at least before taking into account the Nationals' five seats. It is unclear what impact her resignation from the ALP will have on the government's ability to pass legislation. The 29-year-old has stated that she will represent the interests of her Western Australian constituents, addressing issues such as Indigenous incarceration rates, the housing crisis, and the climate crisis.
When asked if she would continue to vote along Labor lines on issues unrelated to Palestinian recognition, Payman was noncommittal. She stated that she would have to assess each motion and legislation on its own merits. Previously, Labor needed the support of the Greens and at least two independents to gain a majority. With Payman's defection, they now need three.
This has proven to be a headache for the government, particularly when it comes to the subject of housing. The Greens have opposed programs such as the Housing Australia Future Fund and the help to buy and build to rent bills, causing them to remain stuck in the upper house. As the cost of living, including the housing crisis, is expected to be a crucial topic in the upcoming election, this poses a challenge for the government to prove their credentials.
While Payman's defection does not change the fundamental problem for the government – needing the support of the Greens to pass legislation – it does add an extra potential headache. If the Greens come on board but the other crossbenchers do not, convincing three independents to support their agenda will be a harder task than persuading two. Payman has given no guarantee that she will support the government's agenda, stating that she hasn't thought that far ahead.
With Parliament now on a five-week winter break, it remains to be seen what Payman's thoughts and actions will be when they reconvene. Her defection has certainly added an interesting dynamic to the political landscape, and the government will need to carefully navigate their relationships with the crossbenchers in order to pass legislation in the lead up to the next federal election. Only time will tell what impact Payman's decision will have on the future of Australian politics.
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