February 18th 2024.
According to experts, there is a strong belief that if Donald Trump were to become president, it would only serve to increase tensions in Europe. This is due to recent comments he made where he encouraged Russia to do as they please with NATO allies who fail to meet their defense spending commitments. These comments were met with widespread condemnation, with current US president Joe Biden calling them "dumb", "shameful", and "dangerous". Lord Cameron also expressed concern, stating that this is not a sensible approach. In response to the condemnation, Republican congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Green told Lord Cameron to "kiss her ass".
But the question remains, what would happen if Trump were to be re-elected as president? Would he continue to encourage Russian interference in NATO countries that do not meet their financial obligations? In a recent interview with Fox News, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that they would only invade if Poland were to attack them. However, experts warn that a second Trump presidency could potentially strengthen Putin's hand in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, giving him the green light to invade other Eastern European countries and Baltic states.
Dr. Laura Smith, a presidential historian at Oxford University, and teaching associate in International History at the University of Nottingham, compared Trump to a "madman on steroids", stating that his unpredictable nature poses a danger to European peace. She also believes that as president, he would not change his anti-NATO, isolationist stance, which would only embolden Putin further. She also referenced his impeachment following the Capitol riots, where he threatened to withdraw support from Ukraine. In her opinion, this would only serve as a "green light" for Putin to expand his invasion into Ukraine and beyond.
Another expert, Dr. David Dunn, a professor of International Politics at the University of Birmingham, believes that Trump's recent comments were made for a specific reason. He stated that Trump enjoys being in the media spotlight and deliberately made these comments while the focus was on Biden. Dr. Dunn also compared Trump to a "mafia-like" businessman, operating on a purely transactional basis. He believes that this mindset has no place in international politics and that Trump is unlikely to stick to his comments unless there is something in it for him.
In 2014, NATO allies agreed to halt spending cuts and work towards spending 2% of their gross domestic profit on defense by 2024, after Russia annexed Crimea. This year, NATO defense spending is set to hit a record high, with 18 out of 31 members meeting the target. This increase in spending is in anticipation of a potential Trump presidency. Poland currently spends 3.9% of its GDP on defense, exceeding the US's 3.5% and far surpassing Spain's 1%. Experts believe that geography plays a significant role in this, as NATO's spending has increased during Russia's invasion of Ukraine and Trump's first term in office.
Dr. Dunn also warns that a second Trump presidency would make it easier for Putin to invade other NATO countries. He cites Trump's attempts to block aid bills for Ukraine and Israel as evidence of his inaction and isolationism on the world stage. According to Dr. Dunn, this could enable an escalation in the conflict, with Putin stating in his interview with Tucker Carlson that Russia is destined to reclaim its old empire. This leads to uncertainty and fear, with an increase in nuclear capability and defense spending across the world.
While some experts hope for cooler heads to prevail and prevent a potential World War III, they acknowledge that Trump's presidency is a topic that is often discussed among their students. Dr. Smith compared Trump to "gasoline on fire", both domestically and internationally. She believes that he sees himself as a "storm" and uses this to exert control. In her opinion, a second Trump presidency would only serve to escalate tensions in Ukraine and Europe.
Interestingly, Putin recently took to Russian state TV to back Biden to continue as president, stating that he is more experienced, predictable, and an old-school politician. However, both experts believe that reverse psychology is at play here, and Putin's true preference is Trump. They believe that Putin is attempting to manipulate the situation by praising qualities that are disliked by both Trump supporters and himself. In conclusion, Dr. Dunn states that ultimately, Trump is Putin's ideal candidate for the next presidency.
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