October 31st 2024.
Can you believe it? Broncos Country is buzzing about the possibility of the playoffs! It may seem far-fetched, but the Broncos are currently sitting at 5-3, second in the AFC West. And with other teams like the Bengals, Jets, and Dolphins underperforming, there's a chance that Sean Payton's team could do something that seemed impossible just a few months ago.
There's definitely a sense of hope in Denver, but let's not forget that this organization has been in a dark place since 2016. If the Broncos want to break their eight-year playoff drought, they'll need to follow a certain roadmap. So, what does that roadmap look like? Let's break it down.
First and foremost, the Broncos need to maintain their success on defense. As Payton always says, a championship team has a consistent rushing attack and a solid defense. Luckily, the Broncos have been excelling in the latter. This is quite a turnaround from last year's struggles, especially considering they lost one of the top safeties in the league, Justin Simmons, during the offseason.
But now, the Broncos have held their opponents to under 20 points in six out of eight games. Led by defensive end Zach Allen, edge rushers Nik Bonitto and Jonathon Cooper, the Broncos have one of the best pass rushes in the league. Bonitto is on track to record double-digit sacks, and Cooper is not far behind. And let's not forget about new additions like Malcolm Roach and John Franklin-Myers, who have helped improve the team's run defense. In fact, the Broncos have only allowed an average of four rushing yards per carry, which is tied for fourth-best in the league. This is a significant improvement from last year's 30th-ranked rushing defense.
In the secondary, cornerback Pat Surtain II continues to play like an All-Pro, while second-year cornerback Riley Moss has been holding his own in the starting role. And part of the Broncos' success on defense can be attributed to their ability to play man coverage, giving their pass rushers enough time to get to the quarterback.
But the next three weeks will truly put this defense to the test, as they face tough opponents like Baltimore, Kansas City, and Atlanta. If they can continue to play at this high level, they just might find themselves playing meaningful football in January.
Next, let's talk about Bo Nix. The rookie quarterback has been making strides, and in October, he arguably had some of the best numbers among all the rookie quarterbacks. He threw for 870 yards, seven touchdowns, and only one interception, all while completing 66.7% of his passes.
It's worth noting that Nix's interception total has significantly decreased since September, where he threw four picks. While there's still room for improvement, one thing is clear: Nix's ability to protect the ball is crucial for the team's success. In fact, the Broncos are 5-0 when Nix doesn't throw an interception, but 0-3 when he does.
Payton knows that there's no room for error, especially when facing tough opponents like the Baltimore Ravens. He stressed the importance of controlling the time of possession during Wednesday's practice, and in order to do that, Nix will have to continue to make smart decisions and avoid turning the ball over.
And let's not forget about running back Javonte Williams. When he's running like a "runaway freight train," good things tend to happen for the Broncos. In fact, the team is 8-0 when Williams rushes for at least 60 yards, dating back to the 2023 season. However, consistency has been an issue for Williams, as he's been held under 50 yards rushing five times this season. But in the last five games, he's shown improvement, recording 293 yards.
It's worth noting that five out of the top six rushing offenses are currently in the playoff picture, with a combined record of 28-11. Meanwhile, the Broncos are ranked 14th in rushing yards per game. If they want to be considered playoff contenders, they'll need consistent production from Williams and the rest of their running backs.
Lastly, the Broncos need more explosive plays in their passing game. Nix has shown off his arm strength, averaging 8.2 air yards per attempt. However, accuracy has been an issue, with a completion percentage of only 32.0 on intermediate throws and 39.1% on passes of 20-plus yards downfield. Last week's win over the Panthers was a step in the right direction, but the Broncos can't rely on playing a weak team every week.
Their upcoming game against the Ravens will be a true test, as Baltimore is known for their ability to stop the run but have struggled against explosive plays. This season, they've given up the most touchdown passes on throws of 20-plus yards. If Nix can take advantage of this, it could be a game-changer for the Broncos.
While the Broncos are focused on establishing a strong running game, incorporating more explosive plays into their offense will open up other opportunities. As Payton said, "We're close on it." It's clear that the Broncos have the potential to make a playoff run, but they'll need to continue on this roadmap if they want to break their playoff drought.
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