November 5th 2024.
As the US presidential election begins, voters in some states are already making their way to the polls. However, it's not just a simple walk down the street for some. Some voters will need to be determined to brave the weather conditions in order to cast their vote.
While the forecast isn't catastrophic, there are some significant weather events that could potentially impact the election. In one state, a blizzard is predicted, while another state is facing heavy rain that will run from north to south. These weather conditions can make it challenging for people to leave their homes and make it to the ballot box, which could have an effect on the outcome of the election.
Currently, the US is divided by weather, with a cold front in the west and warmer weather in the east. The strongest weather forecast is in Montana, a northern state bordering Canada, where a blizzard is expected. However, this is not likely to affect the election results as Montana is projected to vote for Republican candidate Donald Trump.
According to BBC Weather, there is a risk of heavy rain and thunderstorms in the south and midwest, which could potentially lead to flooding. In Florida, voters waited in line in the rain on the last day of early voting. In parts of Idaho, eastern Washington, and Oregon, there could be some snowfall, while the northeast, mid-Atlantic, and southwest are expecting calm weather. California is facing dry, breezy conditions that are raising concerns for potential fires.
Among the swing states that will ultimately determine the election, Michigan and Wisconsin are most likely to see rain. Here is the weather forecast for these battleground states, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Weather Prediction Center.
Arizona is expected to have temperatures ranging from 15.6 to 20.6°C in most regions, with cooler temperatures in the northern areas. The state will mostly be dry, with some light rain possible near the Utah border. In Georgia, temperatures will range from 23°C to high 20s, with a chance of light rainfall in the southwestern parts of the state.
As for when the polls will close, there is an embargo on reporting exit polls until 10pm UK time. However, at this time, voting will have already ended in Indiana and most of Kentucky. By midnight UK time, polls will have closed in nine states, including swing states like Georgia and North Carolina. At 1am UK time, polls will close in about half of the country, including key state Pennsylvania. 2am UK time will see polls closing in 15 states, including Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin. The last remaining swing state, Nevada, will have its polls close at 3am UK time. The last polls will close by 4am UK time, including in California and Alaska. It is possible that the winner will be projected by morning, but in some cases, a close presidential vote may take weeks to call due to narrow margins and the need for recounts.
In 2020, the result was called four days after polls closed. In Michigan, temperatures will be above normal, with some thunderstorms possible in the lower part of the state. In Nevada, temperatures will range from 15.6 to 20.6°C, with the possibility of approaching 21°C in Las Vegas. In the morning, temperatures will be around -5°C in higher elevations, but will warm up in the afternoon. It's worth noting that the west is expected to be colder than the east on election day.
In North Carolina, temperatures in the mid 20s are expected, with a chance of showers in western parts of the state. Pennsylvania is not expecting any rainfall, with temperatures in the mid 20s in western regions. In Wisconsin, central and eastern regions will have temperatures ranging from 15.6 to 20.6°C, while the northern half of the state could see 1.3cm of rain, with less expected in the southern half. The weather conditions in these battleground states could potentially play a role in the outcome of the election.
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