January 2nd 2025.
It's no secret that the upcoming release of GTA 6 is bound to bring in a hefty sum of money, but just how much money will it rake in? Industry analysts are predicting that the highly-anticipated game will be a massive success upon its launch, but it may not be the perfect solution to all of the challenges facing the games industry.
If all goes according to plan and there are no delays, GTA 6 will undoubtedly be the most highly-anticipated video game release of 2025. It's such a huge deal that other publishers are reportedly refraining from announcing any autumn 2025 release dates for their own games, in order to avoid directly competing with it.
Surprisingly, 2024 came and went without any updates on the progress of GTA 6. None of the fan theories about when a second trailer would drop proved to be accurate. As a result, expectations are running high for developer Rockstar to share some news later this year.
While we can't predict exactly when that will happen, one thing is for sure - GTA 6 will make a ton of money when it finally hits the shelves. In fact, industry analysts are predicting that it will shatter the records set by its predecessor, GTA 5, when it was released in 2013.
So just how much money are we talking about here? According to market research firm DFC Intelligence, GTA 6 could make a whopping $1 billion in pre-orders alone. That's an impressive feat that even GTA 5 didn't achieve, as it took three days after its release to hit the same threshold.
But that's not all - DFC Intelligence also predicts that within the first 12 months of its release, GTA 6 could generate a massive $3.2 billion in revenue. That's double the amount that GTA 5 made in the same timeframe, and far more than any movie that came out in 2024. For comparison, the highest grossing movie of that year, Inside Out 2, made nearly $1.7 billion at the box office.
If these predictions are accurate, GTA 6 could easily become one of the biggest entertainment launches of all time, not just in the video game industry. Even Yoshio Osaki, chief executive of IDG Consulting, agrees, stating, "The pent-up demand is greater than anything we've seen before."
To put things into perspective, GTA 5 has made over $8.5 billion in revenue since its release. And it's entirely possible that GTA 6 could surpass that if these predictions hold true, especially if Rockstar continues to keep players engaged with a successor to the popular GTA Online multiplayer mode.
The success of GTA 6 is also expected to have a positive ripple effect on the entire games industry, as it will bring more attention and interest to video games as a whole.
However, not everyone is convinced that GTA 6 will automatically trigger a surge of growth within the industry. Ampere Analysis predicts that consumer spending on games will only increase by 2.2% to $195 billion. While this may seem like a significant amount, it pales in comparison to the substantial growth the industry experienced from 2015 to 2021, where spending skyrocketed from $95 billion to $191 billion.
Of course, the Covid-19 pandemic played a part in this as well, and executives were optimistic that this growth would continue. This led to companies taking on too many new staff and buying out studios, which eventually resulted in widespread layoffs in 2023 and 2024.
Game designer and consultant Nicholas Lovell explains, "We've grown so well in the last 25 years that it feels like none of us knows how to work in a non-growing industry. There is no funding and the market is oversaturated [with new games]."
Even Take-Two Interactive CEO Strauss Zelnick, who also oversaw his fair share of layoffs, admitted to The Financial Times, "We too got a little bit ahead of ourselves in terms of growth expectations." However, he admits that he was "a bit surprised" when consumer spending on games began to decline after the pandemic. But he remains confident that the launch of GTA 6 will reignite interest in gaming.
"You're seeing more consumer demand broadly. And the [games] industry, led by us, has an amazing release schedule coming in 2025 and beyond," says Zelnick. "A hit coming from one company tends to benefit the entire industry."
With all these predictions and expectations surrounding GTA 6, it's hard not to wonder if it will surpass the $8.5 billion mark even quicker than GTA 5 did. Only time will tell. In the meantime, you can stay updated by following us on social media, signing up for our newsletter, or leaving a comment below. And for those looking to submit Inbox letters or Reader's Features, our Submit Stuff page is now available for easier submissions.
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