December 21st 2024.
The future of Xbox seems uncertain, according to one reader who believes that Microsoft's days as a console manufacturer are coming to an end. They have a theory about where things went wrong for the company.
It's been a tumultuous week for Xbox, to say the least. First, we had a well-known insider claiming that the era of Xbox exclusives is over. Then, the head of Microsoft announced that he's redefining what it means to be an Xbox fan. And to top it off, there were reports of the Xbox Series X being quietly pulled from sale in Europe and a 29% decrease in US sales just before Christmas.
It's hard to imagine things getting much worse for Xbox at this point. But then there was the news from analysts that there's no longer room for three console formats and that either PlayStation or Xbox will eventually be pushed out. As much as it pains me to say it, it's not hard to see Xbox being the one to lose out in that scenario.
Don't get me wrong, this isn't good news for anyone. Sony needs strong competition to keep them in check, and Microsoft just hasn't been able to offer that since the Xbox 360 days. And even then, it was only for a brief period until Sony caught up, and Microsoft shifted their focus to Kinect.
It's almost unbelievable how inept Microsoft has been at challenging Sony, especially considering their enormous worth of $3 trillion. They could buy Sony several times over, yet they've struggled to make a dent in the gaming industry. Even their acquisition of Activision Blizzard didn't give them the boost they needed. In fact, it may have been the final nail in the coffin.
Now, Microsoft may be the biggest games publisher in the West, but at what cost? They can't afford to release any games exclusively on Xbox, effectively making themselves a third party. It's a disappointing turn of events for a company that once had so much potential.
I can't say for certain what Microsoft's next-gen plans are, and I doubt they even know themselves. But one thing is clear: Xbox hardware is now just a niche, and it's difficult to see that ever changing. The main reason for this is that Microsoft has never truly understood the games industry.
I have no doubt that Phil Spencer is passionate about gaming, but he seems to have missed the most basic rule of the industry - games sell consoles. It's a simple concept, but one that Microsoft has never seemed to fully grasp. In the end, it's all about the games. And that has always been Microsoft's weak point.
The question now is, how big will Fable be? A few years ago, Spencer famously said that even an 11/10 game wouldn't save Xbox. He correctly pointed out that losing the ecosystem war during the PlayStation 4 generation was a significant blow, as people became locked into their chosen platform. But he was only half right.
The truth is, an exceptional game can make all the difference. Just look at Nintendo - they don't have a vast ecosystem, but they consistently produce fantastic games. It's never been an issue for them because they know how to make great games.
Spencer's statement about Starfield not being able to sway players from their PS5s is a bit silly. It's highly unlikely that a game like Starfield would be good enough to achieve that level of impact. And the same goes for Halo, Gears of War, and even Fable. Despite all the money Microsoft has poured into their studios, they just don't seem to have the talent to create truly exceptional games.
They had to completely restart development on Halo, the new Gears of War team hasn't made much of an impact, and I highly doubt the Forza developers know how to make a comedy action role-playing game. If Microsoft had spent some of that $72 billion they spent on Activision Blizzard on experimenting with new ideas and new IP, they may have had something that could compete with the likes of Pokémon or The Last of Us.
But instead, they squandered all that money on a deal that ultimately killed their dreams of being a top console maker. Xbox will continue to exist as a brand, but it won't mean the same thing it used to. Microsoft may try to spin this as a positive, but the truth is, the only purpose of a game company is to make games. And having your own console gives you a significant advantage in that regard.
In the end, it's clear that Xbox has always had their head stuck in the past, convinced that their franchises are on par with Sony and Nintendo in terms of quality and popularity. But the reality is that they've fallen behind in the last two decades. They may have the money, but they've been outplayed by smaller and less wealthy companies that understand the gaming industry much better than they do.
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