October 13th 2024.
As we approach this year's presidential election, it's important to note that while there are 50 states in the United States, only seven of them are truly crucial in determining the outcome. These states, known as battleground states, are where both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris have a real chance of winning and therefore hold the key to the race for the White House. This was evident in the 2020 election, where despite Joe Biden winning the popular vote by a significant margin, it was his narrow victories in Georgia, Arizona, and Wisconsin that ultimately secured his win.
Pennsylvania, with its 19 electoral college votes, is arguably the most important of the battleground states. It was one of five states that Biden flipped from Trump in the last election, with the latter winning in 2016. While current polls show Harris with a slight lead, it's still within the margin of error, making it a tight race.
North Carolina, with its 16 electoral votes, has only voted for a Democratic candidate once since the 1980s. However, like Pennsylvania, polls suggest a very close race, with Trump leading by a slim margin. Georgia, with its 16 electoral votes, was a crucial win for Biden in 2020, with him winning by less than 12,000 votes. This was the first time the state had voted Democratic since 1996, and current polls show Trump with a small lead.
Michigan, another state that Biden flipped in 2020, has voted for the Democratic candidate in every election since 1992, except for 2016 when it played a pivotal role in Trump's victory. Polls show Harris with a slight lead here, but still a close race. Wisconsin, with its 10 electoral votes, is also considered a crucial state, with the Republicans even choosing it as the location for their national convention this year. It has only voted for a Republican candidate once in recent memory, and polls show a narrow lead for Harris.
Arizona, with 11 electoral votes, was a major win for Biden in 2020, with a difference of just over 10,000 votes between him and Trump. The state has only voted Democrat twice since the 1970s and current polls show Trump with a slight advantage. Nevada, with its 6 electoral votes, may be the smallest battleground state, but it still holds significant weight in the election. While it has voted Democrat in the last four elections, the margin between Biden and Trump in 2020 was less than 30,000 votes. Polls show a narrow lead for Harris, but the state is still considered a toss-up.
For either candidate to secure the presidency, they would need to win a combination of these battleground states, assuming all other states vote as expected. With Biden starting at 226 electoral votes and Trump at 219, they would need to win at least three of the seven battleground states, with Pennsylvania, Georgia, and North Carolina being the most crucial. If Trump were to win Pennsylvania, Harris would need to win at least four other battleground states to stay in the race. However, if Democrats secure Pennsylvania, Trump's path to victory becomes much narrower.
While it's unlikely that any other states will change hands in this election, there are a few that could potentially make a difference. Florida, which was once a closely contested state, has now shifted towards the Republican party, with Trump winning in 2020 and the current governor being a Trump supporter-turned-opponent-turned-supporter. Texas, with its 40 electoral votes, is also worth keeping an eye on, as Trump's margin of victory in 2016 was the smallest for a Republican candidate in decades. Minnesota, with its long-standing record of voting for Democratic candidates, may also be a battleground this year. And while New Hampshire has voted Democrat since 2004, it's often a close race, and a win for Trump here would be detrimental to the Harris campaign.
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