November 6th 2024.
As the dust settles on the 2024 election, one prediction that has been proven wrong is that of historian and American University professor Allan Lichtman. Known as the 'Nostradamus' of US presidential elections, Lichtman correctly forecasted all but one election since 1984. However, this time, he has faced a rare loss to his nearly perfect record.
In early September, Lichtman confidently picked Vice President Kamala Harris as the winner, based on his 13 true-false keys to the White House. These keys are not dependent on polls or pundits, but rather on historical and political factors. According to Lichtman's analysis, Harris and the Democratic Party only had three false keys, making her the likely victor in the election.
As the night of the election unfolded and Harris' path to victory seemed to narrow, Lichtman, who was hosting a YouTube livestream, was left speechless. He simply said, "I don't get it," before signing off and stating he would not be giving any interviews.
Despite his incorrect prediction, Lichtman remained true to his political leanings by making a pessimistic forecast about former President Donald Trump. He even went as far as to suggest that Trump would not serve a full term and would instead hand over power to his running mate, JD Vance.
Despite the disappointing outcome, Lichtman expressed his gratitude to his followers for their support and encouragement to continue broadcasting his views. However, he also announced that he would be taking a break and sleeping all day the next day.
The next morning, news outlets called the election for Trump, making it Lichtman's second incorrect prediction besides the 2000 election. However, he did not shy away from admitting his mistake and even took a jab at his competitor, polling guru Nate Silver, who had predicted a Trump victory less than two weeks before the election.
Lichtman took to X to thank his subscribers and listeners and announced that he would be holding a discussion the following day to assess the results of the election. He also pointed out holes in Silver's prediction, stating that Silver had only marginally predicted a Harris win and had warned against trusting his gut feeling.
Despite the disappointment of being wrong, Lichtman remained true to his principles and openly admitted his mistake, unlike Silver who has yet to respond to his criticism. As the dust settles on the election, Lichtman's nearly perfect record may have been tarnished, but his honesty and integrity remain intact.
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