March 23rd 2025.
From the beginning of the 20th century until 2009, the American and European economies were at the forefront, comprising more than 50% of the world's economy. However, since then, their share has been gradually declining. Last year, it was 43%, and it is expected to decrease even further. This is largely due to the economic stagnation in Europe, where the GDP growth has been less than 1% for the past two years. Although there may be a slight increase this year, there are no signs of sustained high growth in the long-term. Even the United Kingdom, a major player in Europe, has seen minimal growth in recent years.
On the other hand, America's economy grew by 2% last year, but it is now facing a recession, which will result in a contraction. Together, the US, UK, European Union, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand only make up 10% of the world's population. This means that until 2009, 90% of the world had a smaller share of the economy than these Western countries. However, this is rapidly changing.
The main driver of this change is China, whose share of the global GDP has grown significantly over the years. In 1990, it was only 1%, but by 2010, it had reached 9%, and today it stands at 17%. In comparison, India's share was the same as China's in 1990, but it has only reached 3.6% today. While India has also shown growth, it is clear that China has been the major force behind global economic growth for the past three decades.
This rapid rise of China has caused concern and anxiety in the West, as they see their dominance over the global economy slipping away. This can be seen in the consistent attacks by Western media on China's infrastructure projects in Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia. Additionally, for the past 20 years, there have been reports predicting the end of China's economic success.
These anxieties are also reflected in the politics of Europe and the US. The rise of Donald Trump can be attributed to two main issues: stopping immigration from non-white nations and stopping the "rip-off" of the US by poorer countries that export goods to them. Despite having a per capita GDP that is six times higher than Mexico and $30,000 more than Canada, Americans still feel aggrieved. Their per capita GDP is expected to reach $90,000 this year, while India's is less than $3,000. Despite being among the most successful and privileged people in the world, Americans are angry about the rise of other nations, with China being their main target.
Trump's main objective is to bring back manufacturing jobs from China to the US, especially in the automotive industry. However, this would result in a decrease in economic output, as these jobs would be less productive than the ones currently being done in China. This is due to the advancements in automation and efficiency, which have allowed the US to produce the same amount of steel as in 1990, but with significantly fewer workers.
Despite these challenges, the US is trying to protect its own industries by imposing high taxes and tariffs on Chinese goods. This has also caused tension with their allies in Europe, Canada, and Australia, who were under the impression that they were partners with the US. However, the rise of other nations has caused fractures in these relationships.
It is clear that the US and Europe can no longer maintain their dominance over the global economy. As China, India, Africa, and Latin America continue to grow, their influence will only continue to decline. The era of "the West" being the dominant force in the world is coming to an end, and we are entering a new era in human history.
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