By Shivaji Sarkar
The recent election results in Bihar have caused quite a stir, both in the stock market and in the political arena. The NDA's unexpected sweep of 202 seats has raised questions about the state's economy and the implications of this political consolidation for its future. While the election discourse focused on issues of poverty, the underlying structural problems of Bihar's stagnant economy were largely left unaddressed.
The disparity between the number of votes and seats won by parties is quite notable. Despite the RJD securing the highest number of votes at 1.13 crore, they only won 27 seats. In contrast, the BJP won 89 seats and the JD secured 85, while the Congress received 43 lakh votes and LJP-RV received 25 lakh votes. This trend is similar to what was seen in the last Maharashtra Assembly polls, where the BJP won 132 out of 189 seats contested.
This unexpected outcome has left many puzzled and has sparked concerns about the future of smaller and regional parties in upcoming elections. Additionally, law and order issues, such as the recent Mokama killing and the victory of Anant Singh, who is facing criminal charges, continue to be a cause for concern in Bihar. Despite the current government's claims of "Sushasan" or good governance for the past 20 years, there has not been significant economic progress in the state. While pre-election cash transfers, such as the Rs 10,000 scheme for women, may have helped the government win votes, they cannot compensate for the state's structural weaknesses. The opposition alliance, RJD-Cong Mahagathbandhan, also had programs aimed at women, but it seems that the votes were divided amongst the two sides. These developments indicate that the political landscape in India could become more volatile in the future.
Financial experts see the NDA's decisive victory as a positive for the stock market. However, the same cannot be said for the microeconomy of Bihar, which has not been able to attract businesses over the years. The state's poor economic condition can be attributed to its historical lag and lack of progress in terms of investments. This is not to say that there has been no progress at all. In recent years, Bihar's gross state domestic product has consistently seen higher growth rates compared to the national average. However, given the state's low starting point, it will take considerable time for this growth to have a significant impact.
Bihar's capital expenditure remains low at only 14% of its total spending for 2025-26, much lower than other states with similar income levels such as West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, and Jharkhand. The state's GSDP is also the lowest among major states, and the gap between industrialized states and Bihar has only widened over the years. In 2011-12, Bihar's GDP was 34% of Tamil Nadu's, 43% of Gujarat's, and 41% of Karnataka's. By 2021-22, these numbers have fallen even further to 32%, 35%, and 33%, respectively. The per capita NSDP of Bihar is also the lowest in the country, currently standing at 33% of the national average.
One of the major concerns for Bihar is its ranking on human development indicators, where it ranks last or near last on most parameters. Its performance on the Sustainable Development Goals Index by NITI Aayog is also quite poor. The state has the highest number of underweight and wasted children, as well as high infant and neonatal mortality rates. It also has the worst sanitation access in the country. The shortage of doctors, paramedics, nurses, teachers, and university staff is also a major issue for the state, with around 60,000 health-sector posts remaining vacant. In terms of governance, Bihar ranks 15th out of 18 major states, further adding to its economic woes.
Despite these challenges, Bihar has performed well in terms of clean water and sanitation, ranking third in the country. The state has also taken steps towards data-driven governance, as seen through initiatives like the Bihar Next-Gen Lab. However, it will take time for the impact of these measures to be seen.
While Nitish Kumar has been credited with restoring law and order after the RJD's "jungle raj," his record in terms of development, job creation, investment, and poverty alleviation is not impressive. With his political dominance now secured and the opposition weakened, Nitish has the same responsibility that he has failed to fulfill in the past 20 years - to lift Bihar out of its chronic backwardness. However, his thank-you message to voters lacked concrete plans for achieving this goal. The future of Bihar is uncertain, and the nation is watching to see if the state will finally chart a new path towards development and progress.
