President Trump, during the campaign, famously promised he would end the war in Ukraine between Russia and Ukraine in one day. He even suggested he would settle the matter before Inauguration Day.
Once in office he put Steve Witkoff (here are my thoughts on Witkoff) in charge to negotiate the final deal. Trump 2.0 has a lot of confidence in Witkoff, your Big Red Car does not.
It was a bold promise, but one he has been unable to deliver on which brings us to the central question — Why?
Trump 2.0 clearly has its heart in settling this matter with many folks suggesting he is leaning toward the Russian view of things which would seem to increase the possibilities for peace, but that has clearly not worked.
Yes and no.
Yes — Putin thinks he can outwait American and Nato resolve, can grind the Ukrainians down, and he doesn’t care how many men he loses in combat. He is at the bottom of the barrel with armor and manpower, but he doesn’t care.
No — Russia is on the verge of economic collapse though the West doesn’t seem to be willing to bring more pressure to bear on this facet of the war.
It is worth noting that when the West won the Cold War, it was economics — the failing Union of Soviet Socialist Republics — that carried the day. The Russians/USSR went broke.
The smart money would be lined up behind the same outcome for the current Russia. In Russian negotiations, the most important element is the relaxation of current economic sanctions. Frankly, the economic sanctions are not being skillfully or diligently enforced, but they are slowly choking Russia.
The problem, my dear reader, is the sheer magnitude, the absurdity, and unrealistic breadth of the Russian demands. Let me show you what they look like.
The Russian demands fall into 6 broad classifications: territorial, military, political, cultural and social, geopolitical, and other miscellaneous (but substantial). In describing these demands I have sourced current demands and others from 2022 from before the war started.
Territorial demands
1. Recognition of Crimea as part of the Russian Federation. The Russians seized Crimea in 2014 during the Obama administration and the US and Nato did nothing. This is called “de jure” recognition.
2. Acknowledgement of Russian “control” of four Ukrainian oblasts (regions, districts or states): Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson. Russian has been fighting in Donetsk and Luhansk since 2014 and seized parts of all four in the recent fighting.
Russia does not currently control all of any of these 4 oblasts, but still it wants the world to recognize Russian control of the entire political subdivision requiring Ukraine to withdraw its forces from the portions it controls. This is called “de facto”control.
It is worth noting that in the 1991 referendum to part company with the USSR/Russia, these regions voted overwhelmingly not to become part of Russia.
3. The recognition of “reality on the ground” meaning any territory currently occupied by Russian troops would become part of Russia. This pertains to other regions of Ukraine not just the four oblasts noted above.
4. Ukraine must amend its constitution to recognize all Russian lands acquired through the war and the peace and recognize them as Russian and codify that Ukraine will never attempt to regain control — either militarily or legally — of the seized lands.
Military demands
1. The complete demilitarization of Ukraine with an agreement to maintain only a tiny army and restrict its use of any advanced weaponry.
2. A complete ban on any foreign troops in Ukraine including European neighbors or Nato troops. This would preclude any formal peacekeepers.
3. No weapons of mass destruction such as nuclear weapons and a specific promise to be nuclear-free.
One will recall the Budapest Memorandum of 1994 wherein Ukraine gave up its USSR nuclear weapons located on its territory to the Russian Federation in return for a guaranty of peace and defense by the Brits, the Americans, and the Russians.
4. A Russian veto over any future Western military assistance and weapons in case of a future conflict.
Political demands
1. Ukraine would become a permanently neutral country on the model of Switzerland. This would be enshrined in the Ukrainian constitution and would explicity renounce membership in Nato.
2. Regime change — specifically targeting Volodymyr Zelenskyy — and the conduct of elections. This is where the concept of “denazification” comes from — the clear implication being to install a pro-Russian government and drag the focus of Ukraine toward Russia rather than toward the West and Europe.
3. The recognition of Donetsk and Luhansk as independent entites as the Donestsk People’s Republic and the Luhansk People’s Republic at their pre-2022 borders. This is related to the Russian desire to simply annex these regions.
4. Complete end to all United States, Western, European Union, and Nato economic sanctions. Russia thereafter expects to trade freely with the West.
Cultural and Societal demands
1. The Russian language is to become an “official” language as the Ukrainian language.
2. The formal protection of all Russian speaking Ukrainian citizens. [Zelenskyy speaks Russian.] This also entails the protection of all Russian-speaking cultural, religious, and language rights.
3. A ban on Ukrainain nationalistic policies that target Russian-speaking culture, identity, history, and religion. This also forbidss the honoring of Ukrainian independence figures and fosters the suppressio of Ukrainian nationalism.
4. Reinstatement of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church (Moscow Patriarchate) and to lift all restrictions that favor the independent Orthodox Church of Ukraine versus the Mosdow Partiarchate.
Geopolitical demands
2. A reset of US – Russian relations to reduce the US military presence in Europe and to ease sanctions on Russia of all kinds.
3. Formal international recognition of all annexations of Ukraine by Russia and global acknowledgement of Russia’s claims to Crimea, the four annexed oblasts, and otehr territories acquired through the war.
4. No European or American peacekeepers and the exclusion of Nato and the West from any security arrangements for Ukraine in any peace agreement.
Miscellaneous demands
1. Russia would have a unilateral veto over any Ukraine foreign policy arrangements asuch as European Union membership, bilateral alliances, or any other formal foreign entanglements.
2. Russia would have complete control over any Ukrainian energy intrastructure and energy policy. This is focused on the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, the largest in Europe.
3. Repudiation of all war crimes allegations against Russia by Ukraine, the US, Europe, and Nato.
4. Complete integration of Ukraine with Russian economy including granting Russia economic concessions and trade preferences coupled with access to Ukrainian energy, mining, and minerals.
5. A permanent ceasefire rather than temporary truces.
Ahhh, dear reader, therein lies the problem — the media does not do a very good job of explaining the magnitude, the breadth, the depth, and the absurdity of the Russian demands.
Clearly, nobody (including Russia) expects the Russians to end up with this package of demands, but that is from whence we are beginning the journey.
We are a long, long, long way from any semblance of a peace deal in Ukraine. The Russians will not likely enter into a truce and they are waiting to see what the US – Nato shakeout looks like.
Will the non-US Nato countries step up their support of Ukraine? If so, the war goes on and on. This is clearly in Europe’s interest.
If Trump 2.0 loses its willingness to broker a deal, then there is some slight possibility that the US tightens down some sanctions. As I have said the biggest Russian risk is its economy. They are on the verge of boing broke.
Putin is the central figure here and he is a rotten fucking bastard, but a shrewd student of Western resolve and he thinks he understands Trump 2.0. Is this maniac capable of risking his entire country on this war? Yep. Every single person. He’s a monster.
My bottom line — no deal. Putin is just jerking Whitkoff and Trump 2.0 off. Sorry. Trumpp 2.0 will be out of the negotiations racket by the 4th of July.
But, hey, what the Hell do I really know anyway? I’m just a Big Red Car.
