December 29th 2024.
It's been a scorching year, with 2024 set to go down in history as the hottest year on record. To make matters worse, the global average temperature has now risen to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. This is a critical threshold that experts have been warning us about for years. And yet, despite all the warnings, the developed nations failed to seize their last big chance to prevent this from happening.
The consequences of this failure were devastating. We saw relentless heatwaves, deadly storms, and floods that left thousands of lives and homes destroyed. The eyes of the world turned to the UN climate conference in Baku, Azerbaijan, hoping for a solution. The hope was that developed countries would finally step up and provide the necessary funding for climate action in the Global South, which has been disproportionately affected by climate change.
A study published in 2023 revealed a shocking truth: developed countries owe around USD 170 trillion for their excessive emissions. They have consumed 70-90 per cent of the total carbon budget since the industrial era began. And yet, when it came time to fulfill their responsibilities under the UN climate regime, they offered a measly USD 300 billion by 2035. This is only a fraction of the trillions needed annually from 2025. It's no wonder India called this new climate finance package "too little, too distant" and "an optical illusion."
As developing countries faced the difficult choice of either returning to negotiations next year or accepting the weak deal on the table, they were left feeling cornered. They feared that the return of "climate denier" Donald Trump and a US exit from the Paris Agreement in 2025 would lead to an even worse outcome. So, with heavy hearts, the Global South reluctantly accepted the offer. A former Indian negotiator summed it up by saying, "Developing countries felt cornered into accepting a weak deal."
While political will remains fragmented, science continues to remind us that this is an emergency. Back in 2015, countries came together and made a promise to limit global warming to "well below 2 degrees Celsius", with the goal of reaching 1.5 degrees Celsius. But here we are, just a few years later, and the world has already heated up by 1.3 degrees Celsius since the pre-industrial era. This is largely due to the burning of fossil fuels, which account for over 75 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions.
According to the UN's climate science body, the IPCC, in order to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, emissions must peak by 2025 and drop by 43 per cent by 2030 and 57 per cent by 2035. However, our current policies are pointing us towards a much hotter future, with a projected 3 degrees Celsius warming by 2100. Even if every country fulfills its climate promises, emissions will only decrease by a weak 5.9 per cent by 2030, which is far below what is needed.
It's easy for developed nations, who are the biggest historical polluters, to push developing countries to do more to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement. But the reality is that these same developed nations often fall short when it comes to taking the necessary steps to keep warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius. On the other hand, developing countries argue that their emissions are much smaller and that they are already struggling with poverty and the increasing impact of climate disasters.
They insist that they need financial and technological assistance to transition to clean energy without compromising their development. Unfortunately, the outcomes of COP29 did little to inspire developing nations to raise their climate ambitions for the 2030-35 period. The main culprit for the current state of the planet is undoubtedly fossil fuels, which account for over 75 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions. However, it's not as simple as just switching to renewable energy, especially for poor countries in the Global South.
These countries rely on fossil fuels for jobs and cheap energy, and they lack the necessary funding, technology, infrastructure, and expertise to make the switch to renewables. And even when it comes to renewable energy, we still have a long way to go. The most commonly used option - silicon-based solar panels - only have an efficiency of 26 per cent and last for just 20-25 years. Other promising solutions, such as capturing carbon dioxide from the air, are still more science fiction than reality.
In the end, one thing is clear - developed countries need to consume less. It's a simple equation - if they cut down on their excessive consumption, it will give countries in the Global South the breathing room they need to grow sustainably. The time to act is now, and we can only hope that the world will come together and take the necessary steps to prevent further damage to our planet.
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