It is 2:31 AM on 24 February 2022 and you and your beautiful wife are sleeping under a feather quilt in your warm bed in still wintry Kyiv when the phone rings. You look at the clock and rub your sleep shut eyes before answering.
Early in the war President Zelenskyy and First Lady Olena Zelenska. They look fatigued and worn hard.
President Zelensky: “Yes?”
Caller: “Mr. President, a Russian armor column has crossed the Belarus border and is headed toward Kyiv. There are additional indications the Russians are attacking from Crimea also.”
President Zelensky: “You’re certain?”
Caller: “Yes, Mr. President. They are moving in force.”
“President Zelensky: “Are we fighting back?”
Caller: “Yes, Mr. President. We’ve already killed some Russian tanks, sir.”
Zelensky: “Good. Kill them all.”
The intelligence world at that instant in time gave Ukraine no chance of prevailing in the fight against what was perceived as a modern first rate army of gigantic power including a fierce air force with which to achieve air supremacy.
The US Central Intelligence Agency predicted Ukraine would fall in a week.
US Military Intelligence — they had intel gathered since 2014 when the Russians seized Crimea and the US began to assist in training the Ukrainian Army — seconded that notion.
British MI6 — same sentiment.
Nato intelligence: ditto.
The Russians were planning on a quick campaign to seize Kyiv, seize Zelenskyy, hang Zelenskyy, and install a Russian government. They had budgeted a week.
What happened next was Voldomyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine since 2019. This lawyer and former entertainment entrepreneur grew into his job and the challenge.
He was pugnacious, defiant, and refused to accept the invasion of his country. He rallied his army and his countrymen and, now, into a fourth year, he continues to lead what has been a wildly successful resistance to the Russian bear.
The man is a warrior and is reported to have survived more than 50 assasination attempts.
Great question. Let’s explore it together.
1. Zelenskyy was born into a Russian-speaking Jewish family on 25 January 1978 in Kryvyi Rih. Ironically, the Russians started this war pretending they sought the de-nazification of Ukraine and its Jewish leader. Face it, lots of Jews are Nazis, right?
2. He earned a bachelor’s degree in law in 1999 and a law degree in 2000, both from Kryvyi Rih National University, but pursued a career in entertainment, co-founding Kyartal 95, a comedy troupe which he would develop into a lucrative and successful production company wherein he gained note as both an actor and a producer.
3. Zelenskyy married Olena Zolenska in 2003 and they have two children.
4. One of the shows he produced and acted in was a television series called: Servant of the People. Wildly successful showing in syndication in Russia, Servant of the People ran for 4 years. In it he played a school teacher who ran for and won the Ukrainian presidency.
At this time, Zelenskyy had amassed a personal fortune of approximately $25,000,000.
5. Zelenskyy became interested in Ukrainian politics in response to his perception of widespread corruption and economic ill practices. Using the brand identity earned by his show Servant of the People, he formed a political party, named it Servant of the People, and ran for President against the incumbent, Petro Poroshenko.
His launch into politics was savvy, digital, and leveraged his brand identity gained through his wildly popular show. It was a brilliant foray into politics. Zelenskyy is nobody’s dummy.
6. In 2019, Zelenskyy won the presidency with 73% of the vote, a gigantic majority and a clear indication of his correct perception of the sentiment of the electorate.
Step back — HE WON THE PRESIDENCY WITH 73% OF THE BLOODY VOTE.
7. When the Russians attacked and Zelenskyy defied the world’s expectations, he enjoyed internal popularity of more than 90% and remains wildly popular within Ukraine to this day.
This Zelenskyy guy is a warrior and a tough nut. When asked by President Joe Biden on 26 February 2022 if he wanted a ride to safety in exile, Zelenskyy retorted: “The fight is here. I need ammunition, not a ride.”
It’s lasted this long because of three essential considerations:
1. The Ukrainian Army is a much better army than anybody gave it credit for being. [A VMI classmate of mine — Airborne Ranger, CIB, infantry Colonel, total bad ass who commanded a Ranger battalion — had advised a foreign division in Iraq and that division had a Ukrainian unit. He opined in the early days of the war that the Ukrainians were no pushover. He was right.]
With combat experience, it has become even better and when supplied well, it can hold and defeat the Russians on the ground.
2. The Russians turned out to be a lousy conscript army whose vaunted armored forces were neutralized by Anti-tank Guided Missiles like the Javelin and drones. Warfare evoloved.
The Russians became wholesale killers — I suppose they always were based on Chechnya #1/2, Georgia, and Crimea — and killed babies, children, mothers, women and the elderly without any remores whilst bombing civilian infrastracture and apartments, churchs (600 damaged thus far), hospitals, schools, and train stations. They used the most fearsome military rockets, missiles, and bombs against civilians.
3. Zelenskyy put together a coalition of supportive allies who provided him with massive amounts of aid and arms. In retrospect, these countries were cowardly in their support. It would be a different war if the Ukrainians had had long range missiles earlier in the conflict.
President Trump — in fulfillment of a campaign promise — is attempting to create an end to hostilities with a peace plan that:
1. Requires Ukraine to forever surrender the land currencly occupied by Russia (Crimea and parts of 4 oblasts) thereby rewarding Russian aggression.
2. Requires Ukraine to demilitarize — disarm their army — and forego joining Nato. There is sentiment in Nato to embrace Ukraine, but the US is against it.
3. As part of the settlement, the United States will cancel all sanctions against Russia and explore ways the US and Russia might cooperate on future energy projects. <<< This is really what Russia wants. They would otherwise fight on until they took the entire country.
4. The largest nuclear power plant in Europe in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine (currently under Russian control and not operating) and would be operated by the United States and supply power to Ukraine and Russia.
5. Ukraine and the United States would enter into a joint agreement to develop the energy and mineral wealth of Ukraine with the proceeds being used to repay the US for its past economic and military support and then enjoying a 50% interest thereafter whilst the funds would be used for Ukrainian redevelopment of war damage.
It’s a tricky one because I want the killing to stop — just like Trump — but I wouldn’t ever trust Putin and Russia. So the peace is just really a pause.
I don’t like the idea of disarming Ukraine and denying it membership in Nato. Doesn’t make sense to leave Ukraine defenseless in the face of Putin and the Russians and their record of brutal unprovoked aggression. Makes no sense.
I think Putin is jerking Trump around and, honestly, the Trump deal is just a sell out of Ukraine.
If I were President, I would give serious consideration to ratcheting the sanctions tighter and breaking Russia economically. That’s what finally broke the USSR.
If we supplied the Ukrainians to the tune of $100B annually, about 10% of the US defense budget, I would be sorely tempted to just grind the Russians into dust.
But, hey, what the Hell do I really know anyway? I’m just a Big Red Car.
Voldomyr Zelenskyy belongs amongst the pantheon of warrior chieftains such a George NMI Washington. God bless us all and God bless Ukraine.
