October 22nd 2024.
The situation in Gaza has been dire for a long time. After Israel launched a brutal offensive against Hamas, one of the deadliest and most destructive military campaigns since World War II, UN agencies warned that it could take decades to rebuild the region. Now, more than a year into the war, a new report is predicting an even bleaker outlook - one that speaks in terms of centuries.
According to the UN Conference on Trade and Development, even if the war were to end tomorrow and Gaza were to return to its prewar state before Hamas' attack on Israel in 2023, it would take a staggering 350 years for the battered economy to recover. This is due to the Israeli and Egyptian blockade that has been in place since Hamas seized power in 2007, as well as the toll that previous wars and divisions between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority have taken on Gaza's economy.
The current war has only added to the destruction and devastation in the region, with entire neighborhoods reduced to rubble and critical infrastructure in ruins. The daunting task of rebuilding would have to begin with clearing mountains of debris and unexploded ordnance, as well as recovering the remains of those who lost their lives.
The report warns that even if Gaza were to return to its pre-2023 growth trend, it would still take 350 years just to restore the GDP levels of 2022. And as the population continues to grow, GDP per capita would decline continuously. This shocking prediction has caused concern and raised questions about the future of Gaza's recovery.
Israeli officials have not yet commented on the report, but the author, Rami Alazzeh, clarifies that this calculation is based on the decimation of the economy during the first seven months of the war and the average GDP growth rate from 2007 to 2022. He emphasizes that this is more of a calculation than a prediction, and that the actual recovery time will depend on the conditions in which it takes place.
Alazzeh also notes that 350 years is a long time, comparing it to the recovery of England and the Netherlands from their wars in the late 1600s. He stresses that this does not mean Gaza will never recover, but rather that the recovery process will be long and challenging.
The World Bank has estimated that the war has caused $18.5 billion worth of damage - almost equal to the combined economic output of the West Bank and Gaza in 2022. This estimate was made before the intense Israeli ground operations, which caused even more destruction in cities like Rafah. A UN assessment found that a quarter of all structures in Gaza had been destroyed or severely damaged, with over 66% of structures sustaining some level of damage.
The Shelter Cluster, an international coalition of aid providers, has also calculated the time it would take to rebuild all the destroyed homes in Gaza. Under the Gaza Reconstruction Mechanism, which was established after the 2014 war to facilitate reconstruction under Israeli surveillance, it would take 40 years to rebuild all the homes. The situation in Gaza is undeniably dire, and the road to recovery will be long and challenging.
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