September 6th 2024.
Today, as we make our way to the office, we're taking precautions by packing an umbrella, just in case. After all, we experienced a whole day of rain yesterday and it looks like today will be no different. Well, that is unless you happen to live anywhere other than the south of England and Wales. Those areas are currently under a yellow weather warning for rain, and it's not just a light drizzle we're talking about. We're expecting a significant amount of rain throughout the day.
This warning is similar to the one we had yesterday, although it does cover a slightly smaller area. Luckily, we won't be facing the strong winds of Storm Lilian like we did previously. The warning went into effect at midnight and will remain in place until 11:59pm tonight. The forecast predicts that some parts of England and Wales could see up to 100mm of rain today.
According to the warning, "outbreaks of heavy rain are expected widely across southern England and southern Wales on Friday." The rain is expected to persist throughout the day and could be especially heavy in certain areas. The total rainfall is estimated to be between 15-30mm for most areas, but the wettest regions could see up to 40-60mm. There is even a possibility of some areas receiving as much as 75-100mm of rain.
The yellow weather warning will be in effect for the entire day. In addition, there is a chance of thunderstorms in the southwest during the early hours of the morning and in the southeast later in the day. These warnings are put in place when officials believe that the weather could cause some disruptions, such as delayed or cancelled transportation, road closures, and power outages. The Met Office also warns of possible flooding in the regions under the warning, suggesting that people should have an emergency flood kit and plan prepared.
For drivers, it is important to check road conditions well in advance, as the combination of rain, spray, and flooding can make driving difficult or even impossible. However, this rain is just a final hurdle before we can enjoy a less wet and windy weekend. There may even be a mini-heatwave in store for us as a treat. Of course, as with most things, this depends on where you live. Forecasters predict that the weather will be "split" between the south and north sides of the UK, with central England experiencing particularly hot temperatures.
"There’s a marked east/west split too, with cool and cloudier conditions to the east of the UK, whilst the west experiences warm and sunny weather," explains the Met Office. Chief Meteorologist Jason Kelly adds, "Repeated areas of rain are likely to affect southern Britain over the next few days, generating some localised impacts into the weekend. We currently have yellow weather warnings for rain in place, and it’s likely we will be issuing further warnings across the weekend."
However, the story is quite different for the north of the UK, as high pressure will bring warmer and sunnier conditions. In fact, some parts of western Scotland may even experience higher-than-average temperatures. On the other hand, eastern areas may be cooler and cloudier due to winds blowing off the North Sea.
The Midlands is already seeing temperatures reach the high 20s today, while western Scotland may reach up to 27°C. This discrepancy in temperatures over the next few days is due to the jet stream, a powerful band of winds that influences the weather in the UK. Some parts of the country will feel the heat, while others will experience cooler and cloudier conditions.
Meteorologist Aidan McGivern explains that the jet stream has become "stuck" and extended south, creating a very elongated setup. "When it is elongated this much, it can cut off from the main flow into an entirely separate circulation," he says. This results in an upper and surface low, meandering separately from the main flow and getting stuck in one location. At the beginning of the week, it was uncertain where this would occur, but now it looks like it will be to the south of the UK over the next few days, bringing heavy rain.
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