December 22nd 2024.
After several days of intense negotiations and ultimatums, President-elect Donald Trump was left with little to show for his efforts as lawmakers passed a budget deal early Saturday morning, narrowly avoiding a government shutdown just before Christmas. While Trump was able to influence House Republicans to make some budget cuts, his main goal of raising the debt limit was not achieved. This outcome highlighted the fact that, despite his overwhelming election victory and frequent threats of retaliation, many members of his own party are still willing to openly defy him.
Trump's decision to insert himself into the budget debate a month before his inauguration also revealed that he is more skilled at disrupting deals than making them. It also foreshadowed that his second term as president will likely be marked by the same infighting, chaos, and brinksmanship that characterized his first term.
Congressman Steve Womack, a senior appropriator, summed it up by saying, "Stay tuned. Buckle up. Strap in." This sentiment is shared by many as they look towards the future and see a cascade of opportunities for similar showdowns to occur in the years to come. Trump's agenda includes extending tax cuts, slashing the size of government, increasing tariffs on imports, and cracking down on illegal immigration, all of which will require congressional support.
For many of Trump's supporters, disruption seems to be the ultimate goal. According to a survey of more than 120,000 voters, 37% of those who voted for him wanted "complete and total upheaval" while an additional 56% wanted "substantial change." However, the past few days have shown the difficulties Trump may face in achieving his goals, especially with Republicans only holding slim majorities in the House and Senate. Some lawmakers are already expressing weariness with the apparent lack of a unified strategy.
Senator Kevin Cramer of North Dakota acknowledged that the budget battle was a "valuable lesson in how to get our act together." He also stated that things will only get more complicated in the future.
The trouble began when a copy of the budget bill, also known as a continuing resolution, was released by top lawmakers. It was not Trump, but rather Elon Musk, the world's richest man and a close confidant of Trump, who first rallied opposition against the legislation on social media by calling it excessive spending. Trump eventually joined the fight and ordered Republicans to scrap the bipartisan deal they had made with Democrats. He also demanded that they increase the debt limit in order to prevent the issue from arising during his presidency.
As the pressure mounted, Trump's demands kept shifting. He first wanted to eliminate the debt limit altogether, then he wanted to suspend it until 2027, and then he suggested extending it until 2029. He warned that if there was a government shutdown, Democratic President Joe Biden would be to blame. In a tweet, he urged all Republicans, and even Democrats, to vote in favor of the bill. However, 38 Republicans still voted against it, a stunning rebuke to Trump's authority over his party.
Trump continued to ramp up the pressure, stating that if he didn't get what he wanted, there should be a government shutdown. He also threatened to primary challenge Republicans who refused to support him, specifically calling out Congressman Chip Roy of Texas. However, in the end, the debt ceiling increase was not included in the final deal, which was passed early Saturday morning.
Trump's allies, including Elon Musk, tried to spin the outcome as a win, highlighting the fact that the final legislation was significantly scaled back and did not include unpopular items such as a pay raise for members of Congress. Prominent conservative activist Charlie Kirk even tweeted that Trump "is already running Congress before he takes office!" House Speaker Mike Johnson also seemed pleased with the outcome, stating that he had been in constant contact with Trump, who was "certainly happy about this outcome."
However, Trump himself remained silent on Friday, despite his frequent social media posts in the preceding days. He did not offer any reaction to the final vote or issue any statements. Instead, he went golfing at his Florida resort. His spokesperson, Karoline Leavitt, stated that Trump had helped prevent an original deal "full of Democrat pork and pay raises for members of Congress." She also mentioned that in January, Trump and the Department of Government Efficiency, led by Musk and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, will continue their mission to cut waste out of Washington.
Despite the resolution of this budget battle, it is clear that more clashes are to come. The chaotic and circus-like atmosphere of the past few days is reminiscent of Trump's first term in office. During that time, a budget standoff resulted in the longest government shutdown in history as Trump demanded funding for his U.S.-Mexico border wall. In the end, he agreed to a deal without the money he wanted, leading to a political low point for Trump as 60% of Americans blamed him for the shutdown, according to a poll.
However, Trump's determination to bend Republicans to his will did not waver. This was evident in his efforts to push through some of his most controversial Cabinet picks, such as anti-vaccine activist Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as health secretary and former Fox News host Pete Hegseth as defense secretary. As the spending debates continue next year, it is likely that Trump's influence in the House will be tested once again. Many conservatives view the growing federal debt as a major threat to the country, while some Republicans fear voter backlash if drastic cuts are made to federal programs.
In addition to addressing spending, Trump also has plans for expensive tax cuts, including eliminating taxes on tips, Social Security, and overtime pay. He also wants to extend the tax cuts he signed into law in 2017, which are set to expire next year, and further reduce the corporate tax rate for companies that produce in the United States. To offset the resulting dips in revenue, Trump has proposed implementing aggressive new tariffs, which economists warn will lead to higher prices for consumers.
Congressman Dan Crenshaw of Texas believes that reducing spending will continue to be a major point of contention between Trump and House Republicans. He stated, "That's never really been a campaign promise of Trump's, but it's a big priority for House Republicans." It is clear that the animosity between Trump and members of his party is not dying down anytime soon. Some Republicans blamed the House leadership for not securing Trump's approval for the initial deal, while Democrats portrayed Trump as playing second fiddle to Musk. Meanwhile, Biden signed the budget legislation and stated that it represents a compromise where neither side got everything they wanted, but it ensures the government can continue to operate at full capacity.
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