November 8th 2024.
As Donald Trump said his goodbyes to Washington in January 2021, he was a deeply unpopular and diminished figure. But even in that moment, he hinted at a comeback, telling his supporters at Joint Base Andrews, "We will be back in some form. We will see you soon." And now, four years later, he has fulfilled his prophecy.
With a commanding victory over Vice President Kamala Harris, Trump has achieved a comeback that seemed unimaginable after the tumultuous 2020 election, which ended with his supporters violently storming the Capitol in protest of his defeat. In the years that followed, Trump faced numerous legal troubles and was widely blamed for Republican losses. But he managed to turn these challenges into fuel for his campaign, tapping into widespread discontent over the country's direction and speaking to a new generation through podcasts and social media.
Despite facing two attempted assassinations and a last-minute switch of his opponent by the Democrats, Trump emerged victorious, with his senior campaign adviser Chris LaCivita calling it a "campaign of October surprises." From indictments and convictions to assassination attempts, Trump's candidacy was marked by unprecedented events that only seemed to strengthen his political force.
Trump's journey to the White House began with a sweeping victory in the GOP primaries, where he defeated a crowded field of candidates. But as the general election neared, he faced numerous indictments and a tumultuous first debate against President Joe Biden. However, Trump's resilience and ability to connect with voters helped him secure the Republican nomination for a second time. And even a near-fatal shooting at one of his rallies in Butler, Pennsylvania, only seemed to galvanize his campaign.
However, just as Trump appeared to be on a glide path to victory, the Democrats successfully convinced him to step aside and make way for Kamala Harris, who would go on to become the first woman of color to serve as vice president and lead a major-party ticket. This sudden reversal sent Trump into a tailspin, but his campaign quickly pivoted to taking down Harris and highlighting her progressive policies and lack of experience.
Despite leaving office with a dismal approval rating, Trump's popularity has seen a resurgence in the years since his defeat, with concerns over high inflation and illegal immigration fueling his momentum. Meanwhile, Harris struggled to articulate a clear agenda for change, with her campaign largely focusing on portraying Trump as a threat to democracy.
But Trump's campaign had also worked to expand his appeal beyond his white working-class base, courting young people, Black and Latino men, and even Jewish and Muslim voters. And as Trump stood on stage with Arab American mayor Amer Ghalib in Hamtramck, Michigan, it was clear that he had successfully built a new Republican coalition.
In the end, the country made it clear that they were ready for a change, and Trump was the candidate that could deliver it. As longtime Trump adviser Corey Lewandowski put it, "They want someone who's going to change. They don't have to think back 20 or 30 years. They can think back to four and five years ago. And they want that back in the White House."
As he said his goodbyes to Washington in January 2021, Donald Trump was not in a good place. His popularity had plummeted and he was feeling diminished. But even in that moment, he couldn't resist dropping a hint about a possible return. Addressing his supporters at Joint Base Andrews, where he had arranged for a 21-gun salute as part of his military send-off before boarding Air Force One, Trump declared, "Goodbye. We love you. We will be back in some form. We will see you soon."
Fast forward four years, and it seems that Trump's prophecy has come true. With his resounding victory over Vice President Kamala Harris, he has achieved a comeback that few could have imagined after the tumultuous 2020 election, which ended with his supporters violently storming the Capitol as he refused to accept defeat.
In the years that followed, Trump faced numerous challenges and setbacks. He was widely blamed for Republican losses, faced multiple indictments, was convicted on numerous felony counts, found liable for sexual abuse, and faced the prospect of jail time and hefty fines. But rather than being defeated by these obstacles, Trump used them as fuel to channel the anger of voters who were dissatisfied with the state of the country.
He tapped into the widespread discontent over high inflation and spoke to a new generation through podcasts and social media, connecting with those who felt forgotten and sharing their disdain for the status quo. And all of this while surviving two assassination attempts and a late-stage replacement of the Democratic candidate.
Reflecting on the campaign, Trump's senior campaign adviser, Chris LaCivita, remarked, "This was a campaign of October surprises. Whether it was indictments, convictions, assassination attempts, or switching out the candidate, it was a campaign of firsts on so many levels."
Trump had entered the general election after sweeping the GOP primaries and defeating a crowded field of candidates. The indictments against him dominated the news and even his rivals were forced to rally around him, as he portrayed himself as a victim of a politically motivated effort to derail his candidacy. However, a late June debate against President Joe Biden, which the Biden campaign had pushed for, ended disastrously for Trump. He struggled to put words together and repeatedly lost his train of thought.
But just two days later, at the Republican National Convention, Trump seemed unstoppable. This was despite the fact that a gunman had opened fire at his rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, just days earlier, grazing his ear and killing one supporter. Trump stood, surrounded by Secret Service agents, with blood streaked on his face, and raised his fist in the air, shouting "Fight! Fight! Fight!" This moment became a rallying cry for his campaign.
According to Roger Stone, a longtime Republican operative and friend of Trump, "If you want to make somebody iconic, try to throw them in jail. Try to bankrupt them. If you want to make somebody iconic, try to kill them. All of those things failed. They just made him bigger and more powerful as a political force. Every one of those things turbocharged his candidacy."
Despite appearing to be on a glide path to victory, Trump faced a sudden reversal when Democrats, fearing a landslide loss and worrying about Biden's age and ability to serve another four years, convinced him to step aside and make way for Harris' history-shattering candidacy. Trump's campaign had prepared for this possibility by creating two versions of their convention videos, one featuring Biden and the other Harris. But the sudden change sent Trump into a tailspin. He complained about having spent millions to beat Biden, only to have to start all over again with a new opponent who was not only nearly two decades younger but also the first woman of color to serve as vice president.
In one particularly hostile appearance, Trump even questioned Harris' racial identity, despite her being the daughter of Jamaican and Indian immigrants who had attended a historically Black college and served in the Congressional Black Caucus. On his social media app, Truth Social, he amplified a post that suggested Harris had used sexual favors to advance her career.
Trump's campaign quickly pivoted to attacking Harris, belittling her as being unserious and focusing on her laugh. They also labeled her as "dangerously liberal" and highlighted her progressive policies from her 2020 presidential run. They argued that her "joyful warrior" messaging did not align with the country's current mood and responded gleefully when she told voters, "We are not going back," despite many voters wanting just that.
Although Trump left office with a low approval rating, it had increased in the years since, as concerns over high prices and the influx of migrants who entered the country illegally under Biden's administration grew. Trump's campaign dismissed Harris' momentum as a mere "sugar high." According to Tony Fabrizio, the campaign's pollster, it was like "a kind of out-of-body experience where we have suspended reality." They predicted that the "Harris honeymoon" would soon fade.
Trump's campaign insisted that they did not change their strategy when Harris became the Democratic nominee. Instead, they tried to paint her as the incumbent, tying her to all of the Biden administration's unpopular policies. Trump, the 78-year-old former president, would be the candidate of change and one who had already been tested.
Harris played right into their hands, failing to articulate a forward-looking agenda that represented a break from the unpopular incumbent. She struggled to distance herself from some of the far-left positions she had taken during the 2020 Democratic primary, sometimes denying positions she was on record as having taken or failing to offer a clear explanation for her change of heart. In contrast, Trump's campaign focused on casting him as a fundamental threat to democracy, a message that resonated with the country's desire for change.
According to longtime Trump adviser Corey Lewandowski, the country was ready for a different direction. "They want someone who is going to change. They don't have to think back 20 or 30 years. They can think back to four and five years ago. And they want that back in the White House."
After his 2020 loss, Trump's campaign worked to expand his appeal beyond his white working-class base. They courted young people, Black and Latino men, and even reached out to Jewish and Muslim voters. In a surprising turn of events, Trump appeared on stage at his last rally with Amer Ghalib, the Arab-American mayor of Hamtramck, Michigan. This was just days after Trump had visited the majority Arab American city of Dearborn, Michigan, for a campaign stop.
In the end, Trump's comeback victory was the result of a new Republican coalition. His campaign had successfully tapped into the discontent of voters and presented Trump as the candidate of change. Despite facing numerous challenges and setbacks, Trump emerged victorious, proving once again that he was a force to be reckoned with in American politics.
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